러시아 천연가스 전략 중심이동의 원인, 경과, 지속가능성: 상호의존의 관점
The Causes, Development and Sustainability of Russia's Natural Gas Strategic Pivot: An Interdependence Perspective
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최근 본격적으로 진전되고 있는 러시아의 동북아 천연가스 공급 및 교역 확대는 천연가스라는 자원의 특성, 전략 자원으로서 에너지의 특수성, 그리고 러시아라는 국가의 정치경제적 특수성을 고려할 때 온전하게 파악할 수 있다. 특히 취약성과 민감성의 두 변수를 고려하는 상호의존 분석틀을 통해 살펴보면 러시아가 동북아 지역으로 천연가스 판매 확대를 모색하는 것이 최근 유럽과의 관계 경색에 대응한 미봉책이라는 통념과는 다른 그림이 보인다. 즉, 이러한 변화는 근본적으로 러시아의 장기적 전략변화에서 비롯된 것이며 유럽과 겪고 있는 정치적, 경제적 갈등은 이 움직임을 촉진하는 촉매로 작용한 것이다. 동일한 분석틀을 동북아에 적용해보면 러시아와 동북아 국가 간의 천연가스 협력이 왜 그 잠재력에 비해 상대적으로 부진한지를 이해할 수 있다. 러-중 관계처럼 협력의 이득이 큰 경우는 과잉의존에 대한 두려움이 있는 반면 한국이나 일본과의 협력은 상대적으로 안정적이지만 시급히 협력해야 할 유인은 작은 것이다.
Abstract
Russia’s recent surge of natural gas projects and the consequent rise in exports to Northeast Asia cannot be fully grasped without taking into account the following: the unique nature of natural gas as a commodity; energy sources as a strategic resource; and the politico-economic characteristics of the Russian state. An analysis of Russia’s effort to expand natural gas sales to Northeast Asia through the framework of interdependence where vulnerability and sensitivity are considered to be key variables reveals that this move is driven by a long-term national shift in strategy catalyzed by political and economic distress. This is in contrast to the popular notion that Russia’s shift is a stopgap measure in response to its souring relationship with European countries. An application of the same framework to Northeast Asia’s position in this relationship reveals that natural gas cooperation between Russia and the countries in this region is lagging despite the vast benefits it promises to bring. Russia and China are reluctant to cooperate due to a fear of becoming overly dependent on others. At the same time, South Korea and Japan’s current energy security leaves them with little incentive to pursue rapid progress despite potentially significant benefits by cooperating with Russia.
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