글로벌 금융위기 이후신흥유럽의 FDI 유입요인 분석
Analysis of FDI Factors in Emerging Europe after Global Financial Crisis
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본고의 연구목적은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 신흥유럽(Emerging Europe)의 외국인직접투자(Foreign Direct Investment: FDI) 유입요인에 대한 통계분석을 통해 유의성 있는요인을 분류하고, 그 시사점을 도출하는 데 있다. 따라서 2008~2017년 기간 신흥유럽(체코-헝가리-폴란드-러시아-터키) 5개국의 FDI 유입실적을 살펴보고, FDI 유입에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 요인을 거시경제변수(Macroeconomic Indicators), 기업투자환경(Business Investment Environments) 및 경영관리비용(Management Costs) 분야로구분하여 상관분석을 실시했다. 그 결과, 글로벌 금융위기 이후 1인당 FDI 유입액과 상관관계가 있는 변수로는 OECD⋅S&P⋅Moody’s 평가등급, 1인당 GDP, 무역규모/GDP, 수입실적, 경상수지/GDP, 재정수지/GDP, 대출금리, 법인세율 및 환율이 선정되었다. 그리고 패널분석 결과, OECD 평가등급은 1인당 FDI 유입과 (-)인과관계가 있으나, 수입실적 및 대출금리는 1인당 FDI 유입과 (+)인과관계에 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나수입실적 및 대출금리의 경우 (-)상관관계와 상반된 (+)인과관계가 도출됨에 따라 논리적 일관성에 문제가 있고, 따라서 (-)상관관계와 (-)인과관계가 도출된 OECD 평가등급이1인당 FDI 유입에 대해 유의적인 요인이라고 할 수 있다. 부연하면, 글로벌 금융위기 이후 신흥유럽 지역에서는 OECD 국가위험(Country Risk) 평가등급이 FDI 유입에 영향을 미치므로 지속적인 FDI 유입을 위해서는 그 국가의 대외신인도가 개선되어야 할 필요성이 있다.
Abstract
This paper aims to classify significant factors of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in Emerging Europe after global financial crisis, and to suggest their implications. In this regard, data on FDI inflows about five Emerging Europe (Czech, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey) during 2008-2017 have been investigated, and correlation analysis has been implemented with calibrating fields toward Macroeconomic Indicators, Business Investment Environment and Management Costs. As a result, variables such as country risk ratings of OECD, sovereign risk ratings of S&P and Moody’s, per capita GDP, trade dependency, imports, current account balance, budget balance, lending interest rate, corporate income rate, and exchange rate have been selected as correlated factors with per capita FDI inflows into Emerging Europe since the global financial crisis. Based on another panel data analysis, a factor such as country risk ratings of OECD has (-) causal relationship with per capita FDI inflows, whereas factors such as imports and lending interest rate have (+) causal relationship. However, logical inconsistency exists in the factors of imports and lending interest rate with (-) correlation relationship unlike (+) causal relationship. It means that country risk ratings of OECD is a significant factor to per capita FDI inflows in Emerging Europe. Therefore, it is necessary that Emerging Europe should improve international credibility for continuous FDI inflows in the perspectives of the influence of country risk assessment.
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