글로벌 금융위기가 중동부유럽경제에 미친 영향 - 국가별 경제회복속도 비교분석
The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis to Central and Eastern Europe: Comparison of the Speed of Economic Recovery
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2008년에 시작된 글로벌 금융위기의 영향으로 중동부유럽(central and eastern Europe)국가들은 심각한 경기침체를 겪었다. 본 논문은 EU에 가입되어 있는 10개의 중동부유럽국가들에 대해 금융위기의 영향이 다르게 나타나는데 주목하고, 그 원인을 기존의 실증분석에서 제시된 요인들을 중심으로 중동부유럽국가들에 적용하여 비교분석하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 금융위기 이전의 투자 및 신용붐, 경상수지 적자, 과도하게 외채를 보유한 국가들의 경제회복이 늦었고, 금융위기 이후에는 확장적인 통화 및 재정정책을 실시하지 못한 국가들의 경제회복이 지연된 것으로 나타났다. 다만 기존의 연구와 달리 금융위기 이전의 재정건전성과 위기 이후의 환율정책은 경제회복속도에 유의미한 영향을 주지 못하였다.
Abstract
Central and eastern European countries experienced serious economic downturn because of the global financial crisis which started in 2008. This paper examines the reasons for the different impact of the crisis to the 10 EU member countries in central and eastern Europe based on the factors found in the previous empirical literature. Our empirical results indicate that the investment and credit boom, current account deficit, foreign debt before the crisis, and the tight monetary and fiscal policies after the crisis are the reasons of slow recovery in central and eastern Europe. However, the fiscal soundness before the crisis and the exchange rate policy after the crisis do not appear to be relevant for the speed of economic recovery, which is different from the previous studies.
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