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EU의 유럽근린정책이 동방 파트너십 국가의 거버넌스 증진에 미치는 영향: 우크라이나, 조지아, 몰도바 사례를 중심으로

The Effects of EU’s European Neighbourhood Policy on the Governance Promotion of Eastern Partnership Countries: Focusing on the Cases of Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova

김훈
한국유럽학회 (The Korean Society Of Contemporary European Studies)|2022.02|유럽연구 (The Journal of Contemporary European Studies)|제40권 제1호|pp. 209-244|DOI 10.17052/jces.2022.40.1.209

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거버넌스우크라이나GovernanceEUGeorgiaUkraine조지아유럽근린정책몰도바MoldovaEuropean Neighbourhood Policy(ENP)
주제분류지역학

초록

본 논문의 목적은 국제협력의 관점에서 EU의 유럽근린정책이 동방 파트너십 국가의 거버넌스 증진에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 데 있다. 특히 본 논문은 동방 파트너십 국가 가운데 유럽근린정책을 통한 거버넌스 증진 가능성이 높을 것으로 예상되는 우크라이나, 조지아, 몰도바 등 3개국을 분석대상 사례로 선택했다. ‘인과적 과정 추적’을 통한 사례 분석 결과, 유럽근린정책을 통한 동방 파트너십 국가의 거버넌스 증진 동학은 각 사례의 고유한 ‘인과적 메커니즘’과 ‘맥락 조건’에 따라 좌우되는 것으로 파악되었다. 무엇보다 EU의 ‘가치 기반 유럽화’를 통한 ‘민주적 거버넌스’ 증진 효과는 예상과 달리 경험적으로 입증되지 못한 채 기각되었다. 이에 반해 EU의 ‘이익 기반 유럽화’는 동방 파트너십 국가의 ‘효과적 거버넌스’를 증진할 것이라는 가설은 모든 사례에서 지지되었다. 특히 ‘이익 기반 유럽화’를 통한 ‘효과적 거버넌스’ 증진은 동방 파트너십 국가의 ‘체제 개혁’보다 ‘체제 안정’에 기여하는 ‘의도하지 않은 결과’를 낳는 것으로 나타났다.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of EU’s European Neighbourhood Policy(ENP) on the governance promotion of Eastern Partnership(EaP) countries from the perspective of international cooperation. In particular, this study selected three countries, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, as the ‘most likely case’ to promote governance through the European Neighbourhood Policy among Eastern Partnership countries. As a result of case analysis through ‘causal process tracing’, it was confirmed that the dynamics of promoting governance in Eastern Partnership countries through European Neighbourhood Policy depended on the unique ‘causal mechanism’ and ‘contextual conditions’ of each case. Above all, the effect of promoting ‘democratic governance’ through EU’s ‘values-based Europeanization’ was rejected without being empirically proven. On the other hand, the hypothesis that the EU’s ‘interests-based Europeanization’ would promote the ‘effective governance’ of Eastern Partnership countries was supported in all cases. In particular, it was found that the promotion of ‘effective governance’ through ‘interests-based Europeanization’ produced unintended consequences that contributed to the regime stability rather than the regime reform of Eastern Partnership countries.

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