음식물 물가 변동과 가계의 음식물 지출 변화에 관한시계열 분석: 1985부터 2006년까지

Abstract

This study investigated changes in food consumption pattern through the time-series analysis on food price index and the annual and quarterly aggregated data from the family expenditure survey since 1985. Annual change rates of the levels and the proportions of the consumption expenditure on 10 food categories were analyzed. The factors associated with food expenditure levels and proportions were identified and income and price elasticities, and cross price elasticities were estimated applying time-series and SURE regression model. The major findings were as following. First, food price index have been increased more rapidly than the overall price index and recently price indices of meats, vegetables, and fruit led rapid increase in food price. Second, the average annual increasing rate of the expenditure level of food outside home was 18% between 1989 and 1997. The annual increasing rate fell sharply in 1998, but turned into increase in 1999 and continued to increase until 2006. In 2006 food outside home & delivery occupied 49.4% of the total food expenditure. In addition to increase in real household income, decrease in household size, and stabilization of the price level of the food outside home, rapid increase in price indices of substitutes of food outside home such as meats, vegetables, and fishes were founded to be related to increase in expenditure on food outside home. Third, proportions of the total food expenditure for tea & beverages, alcoholic beverages, and cookies & snacks had been increased, while those for grains, meats, fishes, vegetables, and fruits had been decreased since 1985. Forth, both income and price elasticities of food outside home and meats were estimated greater than 1, while both income and price elasticities of vegetables were estimated less than 0.5. Substitutes and complements in food consumption were identified by the estimated cross price elasticities. Based on the results, the prospects on food markets and the implications for public policy and further research were suggested.