재생에너지 산업에서의 환경규제와 수출특화패턴 간 관계분석
An analysis on the relationship between the environmental regulation and the export specialization pattern in renewable energy industry
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본 연구는 포터가설에 착안하여 40개 국가(1995년-2007년 사이)를 대상으로 재생에너지 산업에서 환경규제와 국제경쟁력 간 관계를 고찰하였다. 분석결과, 대부분의 국가(오스트리아, 브라질, 인도네시아, 일본, 스위스 제외)에서 환경규제가 강화된 것으로 나타났다. 수출특화패턴의 변화분석과 불변시장점유율분석 결과를 국별 GNI당 damage 비율이 감소한 35개 국가를 중심으로 기술하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, RSCA에 기초할 때, 대부분의 국가가 분석대상 기간 동안 비교우위(16개 국가) 또는 비교열위(17개 국가)를 그대로 유지함으로서 대체적으로 국별 수출특화패턴이 안정적임을 보여 주고 있다. 둘째, 17개 국가는 경쟁력 지위가 상승하였고 17개 국가는 경쟁력 지위가 하락하였으며 1개 국가는 경쟁력 지위에 있어 변화가 없었다. 셋째, 26개 국가가 비교우위를 지니는 제품의 수가 증가하였다. 25개 국가가 비교우위지위에서 비교열위지위로 하락한 제품보다는 새로이 비교우위지위를 확보한 품목의 수가 상대적으로 더 많은 것으로 나타났으며, 그 중 13개 국가는 총수출에서 차지하는 비율도 상대적으로 더 많았다. 넷째, 칠레, 중국, 한국 등을 포함한 21개 국가는 경쟁력 요인에 의해 수출이 신장되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 환경규제가 강화되는 상황에서 재생에너지 산업에 있어 국별 수출특화패턴이 안정적인 상태를 유지하면서 대체적으로 포터가설, 즉, 환경규제의 강화가 수출특화패턴에 긍정적인 영향을 미치고 있음을 시사한다. 그렇지만, 본 연구의 결과를 뒷받침할 수 있는 보다 정교한 모델의 정립과 이를 기반으로 한 더 면밀한 검토와 분석이 요구된다.
Abstract
In this paper, I examine whether stringent environmental standards increase the international competitiveness of renewable energy industries named porter hypothesis using dataset of trade flows of renewable energy goods disaggregated at the six-digit of Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System, by performing export specialization patterns analysis and constant market share analysis. The data relate 1995-2007 and cover 40 countries, accounting for nearly 94.1% of world exports of the world exports of renewable energy goods in 2007. The results indicates that porter hypothesis, in general, is supported by the data in most countries in 1995 and 2007, showing that the number of and the export share of products transferred from comparative advantage position to comparative disadvantage position are more than those of the opposite, despite the increase of environmental standards in most countries in the period time. It suggests that the introduction of stringent environmental standards increase the international competitiveness of renewable energy goods in the light of the available data. However, further study on establishment of the model to support the results and further empirical analysis based on the model are needed to be performed.
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