재생에너지 산업에 대한 무역기반 경쟁지위 변화와 수출신장요인 분석
An analysis on competitive position change in export specialization and factors affecting export performance in renewable energy industry
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초록
본 연구는 지난 1995년-2007년 사이 40개 국가를 대상으로 무역기반 경쟁력 및 경쟁지위의 변화와 수출신장 영향요인을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과와 그 의미는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 경쟁지위 변화분석결과, 대부분의 국가가 분석대상 기간 동안 비교우위(16개 국가) 또는 비교열위(17개 국가)를 그대로 유지함으로써 대체적으로 국별 수출특화패턴이 경로의존성을 지니고 있음을 보여 주고 있다. 둘째, 한국을 포함하여 중국, 그리스, 브라질, 아이슬란드, 인도, 인도네시아, 아일랜드, 네덜란드, 노르웨이, 포르투갈, 스페인은 비교열위가 개선되거나 비교우위지위를 새로이 확보함으로써 수출경쟁지위가 높아졌을 뿐만 아니라 그 상승률 역시 상대적으로 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 수출신장에 경쟁력 요인이 기여한 바가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 불변시장점유율 분석결과, 대부분 국가(호주, 그리스, 일본, 뉴질랜드, 영국 제외)의 재생에너지 수출신장률이 세계 무역총액신장률을 상회하고 있으며, 재생에너지에 대한 세계 수요신장은 대부분 국가(남아공, 러시아, 룩셈부르크 제외)의 수출을 신장시킨 주요 요인으로 나타났다. 넷째, 경쟁지위 변화분석과 불변시장점유율분석 결과 전체적으로 국가 간 경쟁력 차이가 감소됨으로써 국가 간 수출특화패턴이 수렴하고 있는 것으로 나타나 재생에너지 관련 기술 확산으로 인해 기술수준 차이가 감소되고 있음을 시사하고 있다.
Abstract
This paper has analyzed the world trade competition in renewable energy industry, on the 40 countries, from 1995 to 2007. The results of this article and the implications for trade are the following. First, there are 16 countries and 17 countries that have sustained their comparative advantage and their comparative disadvantage over the period, respectively. It hints that in general, the national export specialization pattern is rather stable. And then, the results of constant market share analysis show that most countries’ expansion rate of export sale, except that of Australia, Greece, Japan, New Zealand, UK, was higher than global export expansion rate of total products and most countries’ export, except South Africa, Russia and Luxembourg, has been led by the global demand growth of renewable energy. Finally, overall, there is a tendency for countries to converge in their export specialization, which means the technology related to renewable energy has been spread among countries around the world and the technological gap among countries has been narrowed over the period.
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