실질환율이 외국인직접투자에 미치는 영향: 중국 사례를 중심으로
Impact of the Renminbi’s Real Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment: The case of China
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초록
중국은 개혁개방 이후 최근 30여 년간 외국인직접투자가 대규모 유입됨에 따라 높은 경제성장을 보였으며, 세계 최대의 외국인직접투자 유입 규모를 나타내면서 주목을 받고 있다. 본 연구에서는 2001년 1월부터 2015년 12월까지 기간에 VAR모형을 활용하여 중국 위안화 실질실효환율이 중국에 대한 외국인직접투자에 대해 어떤 영향을 미치는지 분석하였다. 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 중국 위안화 실질실효환율 상승(위안화 절상)이 일정한 기간 후에 외국인직접투자에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤으며 위안화 절상 기대로 인하여 외국인직접투자를 지속적으로 유입시킨 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 위안화 가치 절상은 산업별로 외국인직접투자에 미치는 영향이 다르게 나타났다. 특히 금융업과 부동산 산업은 위안화 절상에 따른 미래 가치 절상 기대로 인하여 외국인직접투자를 유입시켰다고 파악된다. 반면, 제조업의 경우 위안화의 절상은 임금 인상에 따른 실질절상 효과로 인해 제조업으로 흐르는 외국인직접투자를 억제하였다고 해석된다.
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of exchange rate on FDI(foreign direct investment) through ‘the impulse response function’, based on the VAR model. Th VAR model include monthly real growth rate of foreign direct investment, RMB(Renminbi)’s real effective exchange rate, industrial production index, labor cost and trade exports from January 2001 to December 2015. We found that the RMB appreciation has a positive impact on FDI after a certain period of time. Also, It is found that the labor cost has a negative impact on FDI. Further, the effect of the RMB appreciation on the FDI depends on industry. The financial and real estate industries are believed to have attracted FDI due to the appreciation of the RMB. On the other hand, for the manufacturing industry, it is found that the appreciation of the RMB has restrained FDI flows. China’s low labor cost advantage over the last decade no longer exists in the wake of rising wages every year. This further suppressed FDI inflows in manufacturing.
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