환율변동성에 따른 외국인직접투자 변화에 관한 연구
A Study on the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment
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본 연구는 외국인직접투자에 대한 달러환율 및 엔화환율 변동성의 영향을 분석한 연구이다. 특히 외국인직접투자에 대해 환율의 영향을 산업별, 유입 형태별로 구분하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과를 살펴보면 전체 총합에서는 Greenfield형과 M&A형 모두 환율변동성에 음의 효과를 가져 왔다. 즉 환율변동성이 높아지면 두 유형의 외국인직접투자가 감소하는 패턴을 보인다. 세부 산업별에서는 외국인직접투자 중 상대적 비중이 큰 제조업과 서비스업의 경우에도 Greenfield형과 M&A형 모두 환율변동성이 증가할 경우 두 형태의 외국인 직접투자가 감소함을 보였다. 한편 Greenfield와 M&A 두 형태를 비교해 보면 M&A 형태의 외국인직접투자의 감소폭이 Greenfield 형태의 외국인직접투자 보다 크게 나타났다. 이는 상대적으로 M&A 형태의 외국인직접투자가 급격한 환율변동성에 더 민감하게 반응한다는 것을 시사하고 있다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the effects of the dollar and yen exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment in Korea. In particular, the effects of the exchange rate on foreign direct investment were analyzed by industry and type of inflows. This analysis shows that both Greenfield type and M & A type have a negative effect on exchange rate volatility in the total sum of foreign direct investment. In other words, as exchange rate volatility increases, both types of FDI decline. In the sub-industries, both types of foreign direct investment decreased when the exchange rate volatility increased in both the Greenfield type and the M & A type; even in the manufacturing and service industries, which have a relatively high proportion of foreign direct investment. On the other hand, the comparison between Greenfield and M & A shows that the decline of M & A type foreign direct investment is larger than that of Greenfield type foreign direct investment. This implies that foreign direct investment in the form of M & A is more sensitive to rapid exchange rate volatility.
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