비정규직 고용의 확대, 소득분배, 경제성장
Expansion of Temporary Employment, Income Distribution and Economic Growth
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초록
비정규직의 확산은 소득분배와 경제성장에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가? 본 연구는 1970∼2007년 동안의 연간 시계열 자료를 분석하여 이와 같은 의문에 대한 실증적 근거를 제시한다. 분석 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 비정규직 비율의 상승은 노동소득분배율을 하락시키는 요인으로 작용했다. 둘째, 노동소득분배율의 하락이 민간소비를 위축시켰다는 점은 뚜렷이 관찰되지만 투자와 수출입에 미치는 직접적인 효과는 통계적으로 유의하지 않았다. 셋째, 정책 모의실험 결과 비정규직 비율을 10%p 축소시키면 연간 국내총생산이 3.17% 증가하는 것으로 추정되었다. 이 같은 본 연구의 분석 결과는 비정규직 이용을 규제하면 경제성장이 둔화될 것이라는 일각의 주장을 직접적으로 반박한다.
Abstract
What are the effects of the expansion of temporary employment on income distribution and economic growth? This study provides empirical evidence on the issue using the Korean time series data from 1970 to 2007. Our findings are summarized as follows: (1) An increase in the ratio of temporary employment relative to total employment decreases labor’s share. (2) A decrease in the labor share negatively affects private consumption, whereas its effects on domestic investment and foreign trade are not statistically significant. (3) Thus, policies holding back the expansion of temporary labor contracts enhance economic growth as well as equality in income distribution. According to our simulation, 10%p decrease in the ratio of temporary employment will increase annual real GDP by 3.17% compared to the benchmark case. Obviously, this result contradicts the argument that the free use of temporary employment is necessary condition for economic growth.
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