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푸틴의 우크라이나 전쟁, 바이든의 민주주의 기획, 그리고 새로운 국제 (무)질서

Putin’s War in Ukraine, Biden’s Democracy Crusade, and the New International Disorders

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초록

본고는 우크라이나 전쟁이 이차대전 이후 규칙기반 전후 질서를 붕괴시켰고 냉전을 재연하고 있다는 지배적인 해석에 대한 비판을, 거시적으로는 미국 주도 국제질서의 붕괴와 우크라이나 전쟁의 충격에 대한 역사적 비교, 미시적으로는 푸틴의2021-2022년 강압외교 및 2022년 2월 우크라이나 침공에 대한 미국 바이든 행정부의 정책 및 주류 전문가들의 외교안보 담론에 대한 검토를 통해서 시도한다. 본고의 핵심적인 주장은 두 가지이다. 첫째, 우크라이나 전쟁의 발발은 기존의 미국 주도 국제질서가 이미 붕괴된 상태에서 푸틴의 안보 우려와 우크라이나를 민주주의 대 독재 대결의 첨병으로 규정하고 지원한 바이든의 민주주의 기획이 충돌한결과이다. 둘째, 이 전쟁의 가장 직접적인 영향은 유럽 안보구조의 변화 및 이미 진행 중이던 인플레이션과 기후 위기, 경제 제재가 맞물린 복합적 경제 위기이고, 미국이 비록 푸틴의 ‘도움’으로 유럽 안보질서를 재조정하는 데는 일정하게 성공했지만, 냉전시기처럼 이념과 경제, 군사를 통합하여 진영을 구획하는 데는 실패하고있다.

Abstract

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was an unprovoked and unjustifiable attack against the post-World War II rules-based international order, and the resulting war is ushering in a new Cold War. This paper criticizes these two prevailing discourses on the war in Ukraine, drawing upon a macro historic overview of the demise of the U.S. hegemony and a detailed analysis of how the Biden administrations has pro-actively confronted Putin’s 2021-2022 coercive diplomacy and war against Ukraine since February 2022 with a combination of democracy crusade against autocracy, unprecedented economic sanctions, and alliance formation.

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