세계경제위기에 대한 아일랜드의 대응
Ireland’s Responses to World Economic Crisis
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이 글은 2008년 말 이후 가시화된 미국발 금융위기에 직면해서 아일랜드가 겪는 위기의 성격과 대응 전략을 분석함으로써 위기를 둘러싼 개별 국가의 다양한 대응 전략들이 함의하는 실천적·이론적 시사점을 찾고자 한다. 아일랜드는 현재의 위기에서 가장 심각한 경제 후퇴를 경험하고 있는 나라이다. 그런데 이러한 위기가 곧 세계화 시대에는 사회협약 모델이 유의미하지 않다거나 혹은 세계화 시대에는 일국 내 정치는 더 이상 중요하지 않다는 것을 입증하는 것은 아니다. 아일랜드 위기는 금융의 세계화라는 조건만으로는 이해할 수 없다. 금융 세계화로 인한 높은 자본유동성은 위기의 심화를 촉진하는 조건이라고 할 수 있다. 그러나 보다 근본적인 문제는 국내적으로 고도성장의 여파와 이를 조절하지 못한 정부의 실책, 그리고 부동산 투기로 흐른 은행의 무분별한 외자유치와 이를 규제하지 못한 정부 실책 등의 요인들이 위기를 추동하고 심화시키는 데 결정적이었다는 것이다. 따라서 아일랜드 위기극복의 대처방안은 재정팽창을 통한 경기부양책보다는 재정건전화와 경쟁력 향상을 통한 수출주도 성장전략을 회복의 주요 대안으로 추구하고 있다는 것이다. 문제는 향후 아일랜드의 기본전략인 재정건전화와 경쟁력 강화를 통한 수출주도 경제회복 전략은 세계시장에도 영향을 받지만 무엇보다 국내 세력들 간의 정치적 타협이 어떻게 이루어지느냐에 따라 성패가 좌우될 것이라는 점이다. 이런 점에서 현재 진행 중인 아일랜드의 사회협약 모델은 위기로 인해 폐기될 모델이 아니라 다시금 유효한 모델로 의미를 가진다.
Abstract
By analyzing the Ireland’s responses to the world economic crisis, initiated by American financial crisis in 2007～2008, this paper aims at exploring whether a nation-state’s economic policies are still useful in the globalized world and what kinds of domestic policies are available in response to current global crisis. This paper examines the causes of the current Irish economic crisis and the characteristics of the Irish responses. The economic challenges which Ireland is now undergoing are more severe than those which other countries are experiencing. The reason why Ireland faces more deep economic downturn is not simply because Irish economy is more open, but more importantly, because of many other domestic factors including the aftermath of rapid economic growth in the past decade, wrong fiscal policy that failed to curb economic bubble, and wrong public policy that did not regulate the banks’ over-investment in building and construction boom. As a strategy to recover its economy, Ireland mainly focuses on bringing back the export-driven growth based on the improvement of international competitiveness, rather than pursuing an expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate domestic market. It is noteworthy that the success of the Irish economic recovery depends on how various social forces resolve their conflicts and create cooperation for recovery. Thus this paper concludes that social partnership is still effective, rather than being discarded by the current crisis.
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