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사회정책과 대중의 정치참여: 복지정책이 투표참여율에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석

Social Policy and Political Participation: Analyzing the Effects of Welfare Policies on Voter Turnout Rates

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민주사회정책연구원 (Academy of Democratic Society and Policy)|2011.07|민주사회와 정책연구|제20호|pp. 221-251

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참고문헌

키워드

공공정책political participation정치참여voter turnoutsocial policy투표참여복지정책Welfare policy

초록

기존의 투표참여에 관한 연구들은 다양한 변수들이 투표참여율에 영향을 미치고 있음을 보여주고 있다. 하지만 이전 연구들은 복지정책이 투표참여율에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 주요한 변수라는 것을 상대적으로 간과해왔다. 이 연구는 기존의 연구들과 달리 복지정책을 투표참여율에 긍정적 영향을 미치는 주요한 변수라 주장하고 있다. 이 주장을 경험적으로 검증하기 위해 본 연구는 2002년과 2006년 미국 50개 주의 투표참여율과 복지정책 수준을 비교분석하고 있다. 본 연구의 회귀분석 결과에 따르면, 복지정책 관련 지출 수준이 투표참여율에 통계적으로 유의미하게 그리고 긍정적으로 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 즉, 이 결과는 어떠한 주가 복지정책 관련 지출을 늘리는 경우 그 주의 투표참여율의 증가를 기대할 수 있다는 의미이기도 하다. 특히, 본 연구의 통계적 분석 결과에 따르면, 저소득층과 고소득층은 복지정책의 변화에 각기 다른 방식으로 대응하는 것으로 나타났다. 저소득층은 복지정책 관련 지출 수준에 민감하게 반응하는 반면, 고소득층은 복지정책 관련 지출 변화에 유의미하게 반응하는 것으로 나타났다.

Abstract

Prior research has introduced various variables to explain voter turnout rates. However, rarely have welfare policies been considered as critical variables explicating voter turnout rates. Unlike prior research, this study argues that welfare spending significantly affects aggregate voter turnout. To examine this argument, the relationship between voter turnout rates and welfare spending of the U.S. states in 2002 and 2006 is analyzed. According to the regression results in this study,level of and changes in welfare spending significantly and positively influence voter turnout rates. Specifically, the voter turnout rates of the low-income group are significantly affected by level of welfare spending. In contrast, changes in welfare spending significantly explain the voter turnout rates of the high-income group.

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