한려해상국립공원의 탐방행태

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to show the effects of exchange rate and industrial production on the visiting demand of Hallyeo Marine National Park(Hallyeohaesang National park) using econometric tools. The study was conducted by modelling the visiting demand as exchange rate, industrial production, and seasonal dummies. All series span from January 2008 to December 2013. We first checked whether the series and model were stationary at a 5 percent significance level. The statistical result noted that we should not reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in all variables and of a unit root for residuals at the 5 percent significance level (cointegration regression was used). We also made use of forecast error decomposition and historical decompositions. After 12 months, the proportions of the forecast error variance of visitors alone were around 70 percent in all of three ordering combinations. All in all, innovation accounting indicates that visitors are somewhat exogenous towards exchange rate and business activity. The historical decomposition for visitors, however, shows that the difference between economic variables and visitors is negligible since both exchange rate and industrial production move closer to the actual data. We also made use of impulse response functions, which are widely used to examine how movement in one variable can be explained by innovations in different variables and how fluctuations in one variable can be rapidly transmitted to another. The impulse responses indicate that visitors decrease sharply to the shocks in exchange rate and decay quickly to its pre-shock level. Visitors also respond positively to the shocks in business activity and disappear very slowly, which shows that the shocks last very long.