중력모형을 이용한 해상국립공원 탐방수요 추정

Abstract

Although the gravity model had been neglected by the tourism demand literature for decades, it re-emerged as a way for modeling tourism demand as the role of structural factors on tourism became more essential. Gravity models use the Newton’s universal law of gravitation in order to describe the patterns of international trade. The model considers that the bilateral flows between two countries are directly proportional to the countries’economic masses and inversely proportional to the distance between them. Gravity models fit well when it comes to explaining the international flows of trade, migration and foreign investment. Thus, since tourism can be considered as a special type of trade in services, the movement of international travellers and tourists can also be analysed through the gravity approach. In this study, we employed five gravity models for four marine national parks. The gravity models employ either gross regional domestic product or population, while the distance between major metropolitan cities and national parks are considered as independent variables. The gravity Equations have the form of regressing tourism demand on bilateral distance and two measures of region size. The panel data, which combined the time series and cross-sectional observation, are composed of 4 national parks and 15 years. The gravity model 1 regress visitors on distance between Hallyeo Marine National Park and Seoul and Gross Regional Domestic Product of Seoul for Hallyeo Marine National Park, on distance between Odongdo and Seoul and GRDP of Seoul for Odongdo, on distance between Tae-An Seashore National Park and Seoul and GRDP of Seoul for Tae-An Seashore National Park and on distance between Dadohae Marine National Park and Seoul and GRDP of Seoul for Dadohae Marine National Park. The gravity model 2 inputs Busan instead of Seoul for Hallyeo Marine National Park, Gwangju for Odongdo and Dadohae Marine National Park, and Daejeon for Tae-An Seashore National Park. The gravity model 3 and 4 use population instead of GRDP for measuring the region’s economic mass. The panel cointegrating vectors shows that the number of visitors have a negative relationship with distance, but shows a positive association with the population of metropolitan cities. GDP and the distance between two regions play a principal role in the gravity model. The panel analysis indicates that the population of the nearby metropolitan city and the distance between the national park and the nearest metropolitan should be employed. However, neither the GRDP of the nearby metropolitan city, nor the Seoul city, and nor the population of Seoul is appropriate for explaining the visiting demand for marine parks.