일본의 대중국 통상구조 및 전략변화 분석을 통한 중일 통상관계 연구

Abstract

The key of Japanese trade strategy was to strengthen cooperation with China and to keep in check with China at the same time, premised on the cooperation with the U.S. But in the last 20 years, China floated to G2 by rapid economic growth, it gave changes to Japanese trade strategy. Especially, as Chinese mega FTA in East Asia and the plan of ‘one belt one road’ were realized, Japan has intensified a strategy of keep in check on China through establishing the strength centered by its own country. But lately the U.S. Trump government forecasts Japan will take a high turn on trade strategy to China. This paper predicts future China-Japan relations by analyzing Japanese trade structure and strategy to China in the last 20 years. Future Japanese trade strategy will unfold to cope with China-driven East Asia trade order. Japan will press China cooperating with surrounding nations, and on the other hand Japan will act as a ‘mediator’ of trade conflicts between the U.S. and China. That way, Japan will tighten trade relations with China and enhance its own position in East Asia.