韩国直接投资对中国区域经济发展的影响：面板回归分析
Impact of Korean’s FDI on the Regional Economic Development in China: A Panel Data Study
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本文以韩国对中国的直接投资为例，主要分析外商直接投资对区域经济发展的影响。外商直接投资的最终目的地是区域，因此，外商直接投资对经济发展的影响应该从区域层面分析才有意义。本文主要利用韩国进出口银行和中国国家统计局的数据建立区域面板数据库，包括12个省市，北京市、福建省、广东省、河北省、黑龙江省、吉林省、江苏省、山东省、上海市、天津市和浙江省，这些省市占韩国对中国直接投资金额的94.62%，其分析期间为1992年至2010年。本文在前人研究的基础上建立面板回归模型，韩国对中国的直接投资主要集中在制造业，所以模型的因变量包括各省市的人均国内生产总值和工业总产值，前者能够代表区域经济的总体发展水平，后者能够代表区域工业的发展水平。其分析结果表明韩国直接投资对中国的区域经济发展具有显著性，而且工业部门的影响更显著。而且，分析结果还表明2001年至2010年期间的影响具有显著性，但是1992年至2000年其影响没有显著性，这说明2001年以后韩国直接投资对中国区域经济发展的影响更明显。
Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of Korea’s FDI on the regional economic development in China. The last destination of FDI is the regional level, and the impact of FDI on the economic development has to consider the regional viewpoint. This paper use the data of the Export‐Import Bank of Korea and the National Bureau of Statistics of China, establish the pooled database, include the twelve provinces and municipality, Beijing, Fujian, Guangdong, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Tianjin and Zhejiang, they has the 94.62% of the Korea’s FDI to China, the period is from 1992 to 2010. In the base of the former research, this paper establish the panel regression model, the Korea’s FDI to China mainly concentrated in manufacturing, the dependent variables of model include the two variables, the per capita GDP and the gross industrial output value, the former represents the regional economic development level, the later represents the industrial development level. The results suggest that the Korea’s FDI to China regional economic development has a positive significance, and to the industrial development has a more positive significance. And the result finds that it is significant in 2001‐2010, but no significant in 1992‐2000, this suggests that the impact is more significant after 2001.
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