가계대출 규제하의 금리 인상 효과 분석
Monetary Policy in the Presence of Household Loan Regulation
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초록
급격한 주택가격 상승과 가계대출 증가를 억제하기 위해 정부는 2017년부터 다양한대출 규제정책을 시행하고 있으며 한국은행은 최근 기준금리를 지속적으로 인상하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 주택시장과 주택담보대출을 도입한 동태확률 일반균형(DSGE) 모형을 이용해 금리 인상과 Loan-to-Value (LTV) 비율, Debt Service Ratio (DSR) 규제정책들의 거시경제 효과를 분석했다. 분석 결과 연 0.5% 포인트 금리 인상과 동시에 실질 주택가격은 정상상태 수준 대비 0.08% 하락하지만, 가계대출은1.4% 감소한다. 가계대출의 LTV 비율 상한을 축소하거나 DSR 규제를 도입하면 금리 인상이 주택가격을 안정화하는 효과를 소폭 강화하지만, 여전히 금리 인상은 주택가격 하락보다 가계대출 감소에 효과적이다.
Abstract
This study quantifies the effect of an increase in the nominal interest rate on key macroeconomic variables in Korea by using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with a housing market and collateral constraints. The results indicate that if the nominal interest rate is raised by 0.5% points per year, the real housing prices fall by 0.08% compared to the steady-state level, while household debt decreases by 1.4%. I also show that tightening lending rules by reducing the loan-to-value ratio or introducing debt service ratio limits slightly strengthen the impact of the increased nominal interest rate on housing prices.
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