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기업의 경제적 성과에 대한 4차 산업혁명 신기술의 역할: 머신러닝 증강 성향점수매칭의 준실험적 증거

Role of the Fourth Industrial Revolution's New Technologies on Enterprises' Economic Performance

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본 연구는 4차 산업혁명 신기술의 활용이 기업의 경제적 성과에 미치는 영향을 실증한다. 다수의 선행연구에서 활용한 일반적인 회귀분석의 내생성 문제를 극복하고자 잠재적 결과 프레임워크에 바탕한 성향점수매칭을 실시하였다. 성향점수 추정의 성능을 극대화하기 위하여 머신러닝 알고리즘인 랜덤포레스트를 활용하였다. 또한 연구의 일반화 가능성을 높이고자 전수조사로 수집한 「기업활동조사」의 데이터를 분석하였다. 실증분석의 결과는 4차 산업혁명 신기술을 활용하는 기업이 그렇지 않은 기업과 비교하여 연간 매출액이 약 40%가 높음을 보여주었다. 다만 이러한 효과는 기업의 규모에 따라 차이가 있는데, 중소기업에서 약 43%, 대기업에서 약 77%로 나타났다. 이는 대기업이 중소기업에 비하여 신기술 도입에 따른 활용 역량에 우위가 있다는 점을 드러내는 결과다. 본 연구는 최신의 방법론을 적용하여 4차 산업혁명 신기술 활용의 경제적 효과를 엄밀하게 추정하고, 이를 바탕으로 정책적 함의를 제시한다는 점에서 의의가 있다.

Abstract

In this study, we examined the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s new technologies on the economic performance of enterprises using a propensity score-matching approach, grounded in a potential outcome framework, to mitigate endogeneity issues in estimating the effects using regression. Propensity score estimation performance was bolstered by employing a machine-learning algorithm, the random forest. Data from the Survey of Business Activities in Korea, collected through comprehensive enumeration, were used to enhance the results’ generalizability. Findings revealed that enterprises adopting new technologies experienced an approximately 40% surge in annual sales compared to those that abstained. Effect magnitude varied based on enterprise size. For small-and mediumsized enterprises, the increase was approximately 43%; for large enterprises, 77%. Thus, large enterprises appear to have an advantage over smaller ones in utilizing new technologies. This study is significant for its application of the latest research methodology in estimating economic effects of Fourth Industrial Revolution techn ologies on enterprises and identifying policy implications.

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