은행주도 자본유입 구성변화, 금융위기와 금융감독 취약성
Composition Change of Bank-driven Capital Inflow, Currency Crisis and Weakness of Financial Supervision
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초록
한국경제가 외화유동성 부족으로 외환위기와 금융위기를 겪는 시기를 보면, 자본수지의 기타 수지에서 예금은행의 순대외채무가 급증하고 있다. 그랜저 인과관계 분석에서도 그랜저 인과관계 분석을 통해, 무역수지에서는 “국내 예금은행 순외화부채 차분 ⇒ 무역수지 차분”, “예금은행 순단기외화부채 차분 ⇒ 무역수지 차분”, 그리고 환율변화에서는 “국내 예금은행 순외화부채 차분 ⇒ 환율 차분” 의 관계를 발견하였다. 이는 예금은행의 대외채무 포트폴리오가 거시경제변화에 중요한 선행정보를 주므로 경제안정화 정책 운용에 중요하게 고려되어야 한다는 것을 의미한다. 그러나 지금까지 한국경제가 겪었던 경제위기 기간을 보면, 한국의 정책당국자와 학자들은 비기축통화국인데도 불구하고, 자본수지 구성요인에서 경제위기를 잉태하고 있는 요인들에 대해 관심을 가지지 않았다. 이제 정책당국 및 감독당국은 예금은행의 외화 채무 만기도래를 외국인의 증권투자 자금 보다 더 많은 정책적 관심을 가지고 ‘좋은 감독’ 패러다임의 차원에서 대책을 세워 나가야 한다. 좋은 감독은 각 국가의 소득 수준에 비례하지만, 감독을 위한 규제의 훌륭한 실행의 성과는 금융규제 당국에서 일하는 사람들의 ‘행동하려는 의지’ 그리고 ‘행동할 수 있는 능력’에 의해 결정된다.
Abstract
When Korean economy suffered currency crisis and financial crisis due to lack of foreign currency liquidity, net foreign liabilities at domestic commercial banks surged. Thus, through Granger Causality analysis, we found the following: “changes in domestic commercial banks’ net foreign liabilities ⇒ changes in trade balance”, “changes in domestic commercial banks’ net short-term foreign liabilities => changes in trade balance”, and “changes in domestic commercial banks’ net foreign liabilities => changes in foreign exchange rates”. This indicates that the foreign liabilities portfolio at commercial banks is an important leading indicator of macro economy and thus should be examined closely by the government when deciding economic stabilization policy. However, even though Korea is non-vehicle currency nation, Korean politicians and scholars did not consider important risk factors within capital balance during the past financial crisis. Now Korean policy makers and regulators should place greater emphasis on the commercial banks foreign debt maturity than foreign securities investment and should take measures in terms of the paradigm of ‘good supervision’. ‘Good supervision’ tends to be proportional to the income level of each country, but the execution and the achievement depends on regulators’ “willingness” and “ability” to act.
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