부문별 부채와 주택가격이 소비에 미치는 영향 : OECD 국가를 중심으로
Impact of Sectoral Debt and House Price on Consumption: Evidence from OECD countries
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초록
본고는 소비가 부채와 주택가격에 어떻게 반응하는지에 대해 OECD국가를 중심으로 실증분석을 수행하였다. 2008년 글로벌 금융위기의 원인 가운데 하나가 주택 담보대출이고, 최근까지도 저금리로 인한 가계부채 증가에 대한 우려가 존재하고 있기에, 두 변수를 고려한 분석이 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 주택가격과 부문별 부채가 소비에 미치는 영향에 대해 연구한 결과, 소득수준에 따라 가처분 소득, 주택가격, 부문별 부채가 소비에 미치는 영향이 국가별로 다르게 나타남을 확인했다. 고소득 국가의 경우는 부채가 소비에 부정적인 영향을 나타냈으며 이러한 영향은 신흥국 국가에서는 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 반면 가처분 소득과 주택가격은 신흥국 국가에서 소비에 미치는 영향이 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 신흥국 국가에서 나타나고 있는 주택가격상승에 의존한 소비에 대한 사전적 대책이 필요하다.
Abstract
This paper empirically estimates the impact of sectoral debt and house price on consumption using the sample with OECD countries. Mortgage debts turn out to be an important cause of 2008 global financial crisis, and there is increasing concern of large amount of household debt under the low interest rate circumstances. Empirical results support that the impact of debt on consumption is significant in the sample with high-income countries, while the impact is insignificant in emerging economies. The disposable income and house prices turn out to be the important determinants of consumption in emerging countries.
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