우리나라 물가안정목표제와 환율운용
Inflation Targeting and Exchange RateManagement in Korea
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초록
본 연구에서는 우리나라의 물가안정목표제 운용을 환율정책에 중점을 두고 살펴본다. 외환위기 이후 최근까지 콜금리 반응식에 대해 인플레, 산출량 갭, 실질실효환율의 변화율을 설명변수로 하여 추정하면, 콜금리가 이들 변수에 모두 반응하는 것으로 나타난다. 실질실효환율의 변화에 대한 콜금리 반응도는 크지 않으나 기대 인플레에 대한 반응도보다 크게 추정된다. 이에 따라 우리나라가 싱가포르식의 환율중심적 통화정책을 수행하고 있는지 검토한 결과, 우리나라 명목실효환율의 물가와 산출량 변화에 대한 장기반응도가 싱가포르에 비해 크게 낮아 우리나라는 환율중심적 통화정책을 수행하고 있다고 보기 어려운 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper investigates the experience of inflation targeting in Korea with an emphasis on exchange rate management. The Korean call rate responded to not only expected inflation, but also to output gap and changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won, when we estimated the call rate reaction function over the period of 1999-2007. It was found that the call rate responded to changes in real effective exchange rate more than it did to expected inflation. We also examined whether Korean inflation targeting was actually centered on the exchange rate by estimating the Singaporean style of exchange rate reaction function. It was found that Korean monetary policy was not exchange-rate- centered, since the nominal effective exchange rate of the Korean won responded modestly to inflation and output gap, far less than did the Singaporean dollar.
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