아제르바이잔의 석유가스 산업이 제2차 나고르노-카라바흐 전쟁에 미친 영향
The Impact of Azerbaijan’s Oil and Gas Industry on the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
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본 논문의 주요 목표는 2020년에 발생한 제2차 나고르노-카라바흐 전쟁의 결과를결정지은 요인을 분석하는 것이다. 특히 본 논문은 아제르바이잔의 석유가스 산업이 이 전쟁의 결과를 결정짓는데 중요한 영향을 미쳤다는 가설을 검증하고 있다. 이 검증에서 본 논문은 이 가설의 적실성을 증명했다. 아제르바이잔의 석유가스 산업은 다음과 같은 방식을 통해 이 국가의 승리에 막대한 기여를 했다. 우선 아제르바이잔이 석유와 가스 수출을 통해 벌어들인 외화는 GDP의 증가에 큰 보탬이 됐고이러한 증가는 국방비의 증액으로 이어졌다. 이러한 상황에서 2012년에 아제르바이잔과 아르메니아의 국방비 지출액의 차이는 8배 이상으로 벌어졌다. 물론 이러한차이가 전쟁이 발생한 2020년에 들어 3.7배로 줄어들었지만 그 차이는 여전히 컸다. 이러한 국방비 지출액의 차이는 다시 아제르바이잔과 아르메니아가 각각 외국에서수입할 수 있는 무기 규모와 무기다변화에 영향을 미쳤다. 2010년부터 2020년 사이에 아제르바이잔이 무기 수입처를 다변화하면서 첨단 무기를 수입할 수 있었던 반면에, 아르메니아는 무기 수입처가 러시아로 제한되면서 첨단 무기 수입에 어려움이 있었다. 이러한 차이는 결국 전쟁의 승패를 가르는 결정적인 요인이 되었다.
Abstract
The primary aim of this paper is to analyze factors that determined the outcome of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. In particular, the paper tests the hypothesis that Azerbaijan’s oil and gas industry played a decisive role in the country’s victory. Then it demonstrated that Azerbaijan’s oil and gas industry had tremendous impact on the victory in the following way. Azerbaijan’s oil and gas exports led to the increase in the country’s GDP and then in its military spending. Therefore, the difference in military spending between Azerbaijan and Armenia widened in favor of the former. This widening difference then affected these countries’ diversification of weapons acquisitions and the amount of these weapons that they could purchase from other countries. As a result, Azerbaijan could diversify its purchase of foreign weapons and buy advanced hi-tech weapons between 2010 and 2020. In contrast, Armenia’s purchase of foreign weapons was limited to Russia and thus could not purchase these hi-tech weapons. This difference played the most important role in deciding the outcome of the war.
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