유라시아 국가의 갈등의 동인과 전개: 아르메니아-아제르바이잔간 분쟁의 러시아, 터키 및 유럽연합의 이해
Extrinsic drivers of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan: Focusing on the interests of Russia, Turkey and the European Union
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아르메니아와 아제르바이잔간 적대감은 내재적으로는 양국의 정치적 환경과 경제적 이해 그리고 외재적 요인으로는 러시아, 터키 및 유럽연합 등 주변 강대국의 이해를 통해 확대 및 재생산되었고, 시간이 경과하면서 후자의 요인이 보다 결정적인 독립변수가 되었다. 아르메니아와 아제르바이잔간 접점을 찾을 수 없는 갈등의 골은 1813년 제정 러시아의 코카서스 점령 이후 민족분리정책에서 기원한다. 제정 러시아의 오랜 정책기조는 공산주의 시절에 더욱 노골화 되었다. 또한 탈냉전 이후에는 아르메니아의 후원자를 자처하는 러시아가 터키의 지원을 받는 아제르바이잔과의 긴장관계 고착화를 유도하였다. 코카서스 지역에서 러시아의 지배적인 영향력에 대응하여 국제사회에서는 유럽연합 및 국경을 접한 터키의 대응이 한축을 형성한다. 그러나 러시아 이외의 외부 행위자들은 각기 고유한 이해와 상호견제로 러시아의 기득권을 억제하기는 역부족이다. 코카서스에서 경제적 이해확대에 주력하는 터키와 규범과 당위성에 입각한 유럽연합의 소극적 대응은 결과적으로 러시아의 영향력 확대를 가져와 2020년에 벌어진 2차 나고르노-카라바흐 전쟁의 결과는 러시아의 의도대로 귀결되었다. 이와 같이 아르메니아와 아제르바이잔간 갈등의 지속성과 재생산의 결정적 동인은 러시아의 지정학적 이해와 이에 따른 전략이다.
Abstract
The hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan is inherently due to the political environment and economic interests of the two countries. And the external factor is expansion and reproduction through the interests of neighboring powers such as Russia and Turkey, and the latter factor has become a more decisive independent variable. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan originates from the policy of national segregation after the Russian occupation of the Caucasus since 1813. Tsarist Russia's long-standing policy stance became more explicit during the communist era. As such, in response to Russia's absolute influence in the Caucasus, the European Union and Turkey became Russia's check forces in the international community. However, it is not enough for outside actors other than Russia to restrain Russia's vested interests with their own interests and mutual checks. The European Union, based on normative power and justification, is passive on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. In addition, the European Union and Turkey are incapable of opposing Russia by becoming a checkpoint for each other through political and economic interests. Ultimately, the decisive driver of the persistence and reproduction of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is Russia's geopolitical understanding and its strategy.
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