유럽 재정위기에 따른 남유럽과 동유럽의 국가위험 분석

Abstract

Since the late 2008, European economies have faced with economic crisis due to global financial crisis and default probability of countries in the Southern Europe has increased significantly, starting with Greece’s fiscal crisis from around the early 2010. Whilst another fiscal problem in Hungary has been recently referred, international markets have fluctuated unsteadily based on feasible contagion effects of the fiscal crisis of the Southern Europe into the Eastern Europe. In the meantime, the Greek government requested bail-out of the IMF as well as the EU in order to cope with its fiscal crisis around March this year. Though the IMF and the EU have approved the comprehensive fiscal support package for Greece urgently, international markets against the country has indicated still negative response. This article weights on analysis of the economic situation of the Southern Europe and the Eastern Europe. In this regard, regression and correlation analysis with panel data between macroeconomic indicators and CDS spreads related to respective countries and years have been taken into account for the analysis. As a result, macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth rates and budget deficit have been represented as statistically significant variables to analyze country risk assessment for Europe. In summing up, the economic situations of Greece and Spain in the Southern Europe and Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary and Croatia in the Eastern Europe have deteriorated so that the level of country risk of the nominated countries is expected not to improve easily from the current level within short run. In addition, it implies that the European fiscal crisis has resulted from economic structural problems such as expansion of budget deficit and government debt stock, and aggravation of current account deficit under the influence of appreciation of real effective exchange rates