유로존의 역내 불균형과 조정과정에관한 연구: 유로존 위기 이후 남유럽의 경상수지추이와 구조분석
Adjustment of the Internal Imbalance in the Euro Area at post-Crisis Era: Development of Current Account Balance of Southern European Countries and Structural Analysis
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이 연구는 2010-2013년의 기간 중 유로존 취약국의 경상수지 적자가대폭 감소하여 경상수지 균형을 이루었다는 점에 주목하고, 이 조정의 구조적 과정을 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 무역수지를 공급측면과 수요측면의 변화로 구분하여 살펴보았으며, 공급측면의 변화에 있어서는 이변화가 내적절하에 의한 것인지 여부를 판단하고자 하였다. 또한 상품수지의 변화를 구조적 요인과 경기순환적 요인으로 분해하여 살펴봄으로써변화의 성격을 확인하고자 하였다. 분석결과 그리스, 스페인, 포르투갈 등 남유럽 3국의 경상수지 적자축소는 수입수요의 급감을 통해 주도되었고, 같은 기간 수출은 정체되거나, 서서히 증가하였는데, 점차 증가세가 뚜렷해지는 J 효과 패턴을 보였다. 조정과정 중 단위노동비용은 하락하였으나, 이 하락이 반드시 수출가격에 반영되지는 않았는데, 이는 내적절하의 메커니즘이 전체 수출 증가를설명하지는 못함을 의미한다. 또한 상품수지를 구조적 요인과 경기적 요인으로 분해하여 살펴본 결과, 경상수지 적자가 축소되는 기간 중에는 경기적 요인에 의한 상품수지 개선효과가 컸던 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 내수위축으로 인한 수입수요의 감소가 무역수지 개선에 크게 작용했음을확인할 수 있었다. 내적절하는 그 과정이 느린 반면, 극심한 내수침체와 정치적 불안을동반한다. 이러한 맥락에서 역내 불균형의 다른 한축인 독일의 경상수지적자를 축소해야한다는 견해에도 관심을 기울일 필요가 있다. 이는 역내불균형의 해소가 경제적 문제만은 아닌, 회원국 간 입장 조율과 같은 정치적 성격 또한 띠고 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study pays attention to the fact that Southern European countries reduced their current account deficit in unprecedented manner during the period of 2011-2013 and examines these adjustment process. For this purpose, this study reviews the changes of trade balance in both supply (export) and demand side (import). In particular, it investigates changes of unit labour costs and export price in order to decide whether the internal devaluation has been effective in reducing the current account deficit. In addition, this paper decomposes the trade balance into structural and cyclical components and illustrates the contribution of each factor in the adjustment process. The reduction of current account deficit in Greece, Spain and Portugal was driven in large part by a sharp fall in their import demand, which resulted from the deep economic recession. Their exports had been stagnating or increased slowly, forming J curve shape, during the first phase of the adjustment. The unit labour cost declined, but this fall in production cost was not necessarily reflected on the export price, which rose during the same period. It suggests that the mechanism of the internal devaluation does not fully explain the rise of export in second phase of the adjustment. The decomposition of trade balance shows that the cyclical component affected much the fall in trade deficit during the period of 2011-2013. This confirms once again the fact that the fall in current account deficit has been driven by the fall in import. The internal devaluation process is very slow, because the wage and price are generally sticky and it cause a large contraction of domestic demand and political instability. In this context, it is necessary to note that the massive current account surplus of Germany is the other side of the internal imbalance. This argument suggests that the discussion about the internal imbalance is not only economic issues, but also political issues, which require closer coordination of economic policies within the Euro Area.
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