Peace Is Not a Long Quiet River: Case Study of the Summitry Process Using Perceptional Consociationalism
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper analyzes the 2018-2019 peace process between the two Koreas and the United States, relying on perceptional consociationalism. Perceptional consociationalism draws on consociational theory used in Northern Ireland to reach a peaceful agreement, with variables adjusted for the Korean case through the perceptional approach. The present paper qualitatively analyzes each summit using its different variables, i.e., the structure of the negotiation framework, the inclusion of and concessions by key actors, the respect of core interests, and tangible reduction of tensions. We conclude the negotiations collapsed due to the non-respect of the actors' core interests, that a multilateral framework would ensure sustainability, and that the Agreed Framework and the Good Friday Agreement could be used as blueprints for future negotiations.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the 2018-2019 peace process between the two Koreas and the United States, relying on perceptional consociationalism. Perceptional consociationalism draws on consociational theory used in Northern Ireland to reach a peaceful agreement, with variables adjusted for the Korean case through the perceptional approach. The present paper qualitatively analyzes each summit using its different variables, i.e., the structure of the negotiation framework, the inclusion of and concessions by key actors, the respect of core interests, and tangible reduction of tensions. We conclude the negotiations collapsed due to the non-respect of the actors' core interests, that a multilateral framework would ensure sustainability, and that the Agreed Framework and the Good Friday Agreement could be used as blueprints for future negotiations.
참고문헌 (67)
- "Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy" (2022)[URL]
- "Fate of Yongbyon Is a 'Big Deal': Hecker" (2018)[URL]
- "Anglo-Irish Pact Paves Way for Peace" (1993)[URL]
- "North Korea Begins Dismantling Key Facilities at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station" (2018)[URL]
- Bueno de Mesquita, B., "Principles of International Politics : People's Power, Preferences and Perceptions" (2003), C. Q. Press
- Chung J. H., "Uncertain allies or uncomfortable neighbors? Making sense of China–North Korea Relations, 1949–2010", The Pacific Review, 26(3), pp.243~264 (2013)
- Walter C. Clemens Jr, "North Korea’s Quest for Nuclear Weapons: New Historical Evidence", Journal of East Asian Studies, 10(1), pp.127~154 (2010), 동아시아연구원
- Considère-Charon, M., "L’Irlande du Nord, entre apaisement et retranchement", Politique Étrangère, 77(3), pp.629~641 (2012)
- Dixon, P., "Paths to Peace in Northern Ireland (I): Civil Society and Consociational Approaches", Democratization, 4(2), pp.1~27 (1997)
- Dixon, P., "Consociationalism and Power-Sharing in Europe", pp.55~83 (2018), International Political Theory. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
- Dixon, P., "Power‐Sharing in Deeply Divided Societies: Consociationalism and Sectarian Authoritarianism", Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, 20(2), pp.117~127 (2020)
- "Moon's facilitation to gain momentum" (2019)[URL]
- Grieco, K. A, "Assessing the Singapore Summit – Two Years Later", Strategic Studies Quarterly, 14(3) (2020)
- Haughey, S, "Back to Stormont: The New Decade, New Approach Agreement and What it Means for Northern Ireland", The Political Quarterly, 91(1), pp.134~140 (2020)
- HAYMALEXANDRESUNGDAE, "Peace of Cake? Comparative Analysis of Northern Irish and Korean Peace Processes", Asian Perspective, 44(1), pp.55~76 (2020), 극동문제연구소
- "A Technical and Political History of North Korea's Nuclear Program over the Past 26 Years" (2018)[URL]
- Hanns Günther Hilpert, "A Comparison of German and Korean Division: Analogies and Differences", International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, 19(1), pp.126~156 (2010), 통일연구원
- Jervis, R., "The Logic of Images in International Relations" (1970), Princeton University Press
- Jervis, R., "Perception and Misperception in International Politics" (1976), Princeton University Press
- Jervis, R., "The Political Psychology of the Gulf War: Leaders, Publics and the Process of Conflict" (1993), University of Pittsburgh Press
- "A History of KEDO: 1994-2006" (2012)[URL]
- Killeen, R, "A Short History of the Irish Revolution: 1912 to 1927" (2007), Gill Books
- Kim, D. J., "Sharing Lessons between Peace Processes: A Comparative Case Study on the Northern Ireland and Korean Peace Processes", Soc. Sci, 7(3) (2018)
- Kim, D. J., "Beyond identity lines: women building peace in Northern Ireland and the Korean peninsula", Asia Europe Journal, 18, pp.463~478 (2020)
- Kim, D. J., "Reciprocal empowerment for civil society peacebuilding: sharing lessons between the Korean and Northern Ireland peace processes", Globalizations, 19(2), pp.238~252 (2022)
- Kim, D. J., "Reconciling Divided States", pp.1~20 (2022), Routledge
- "North Korea States It Will Never Give Up Nuclear Weapons" (2022)[URL]
- Kim, Y., "The United States and Northeast Asia: Debates, Issues, and New Order", pp.142~164 (2008), Rowman & Littlefield
- Kim, Y., "North Korean Foreign Policy: Security Dilemma and Succession" (2011), Lexington Books
- Kim, Y., "North Korea's Threat Perception and Provocation Under Kim Jong- un: The Security Dilemma and the Obsession with Political Survival", North Korean Review, 9(1) (2013)
- 구갑우, "탈식민적 분단국가의 재생산: 남북한과 아일랜드-북아일랜드의 사회적 장벽 비교", 한국과 국제정치, 28(3), pp.189~227 (2012), 극동문제연구소[DOI]
- 이우영, "남아프리카공화국과 북아일랜드의 사례가 남북한 통합에 주는 시사점", 통일인문학, 67, pp.5~39 (2016), 인문학연구원[DOI]
- Lijphart, A., "Consociational democracy", World Politics, 21(2), pp.207~225 (1969)
- Lijphart, A., "Democracy in plural societies: A comparative exploration" (1977), Yale University Press
- Lijphart, A., "Consociational theory: Problems and prospects", Comparative Politics, 13, pp.355~360 (1981)
- Lijphart, A., "Constitutional Design for Divided Societies", Journal of Democracy, 15(2), pp.96~109 (2004)
- Lim, J., "The Singapore Summit Joint Statement: An Incremental Movement Toward Peace on the Korean Peninsula", North Korean Review, 14(2), pp.101~112 (2018)
- McGarry, J., "Consociational Theory, Northern Ireland's Conflict, and Its Agreement", pp.43~63 (2006), Blackwell
- McGarry, J., "Classical Consociational Theory and Recent Consociational Performance", Swiss Political Science Review, 25(4), pp.538~555 (2019)
- McLoughlin, P. J., "'Dublin is Just a Sunningdale Away'? The SDLP and the Failure of Northern Ireland's Sunningdale Experiment", Twentieth Century British History, 20(1), pp.74~96 (2009)
- McLoughlin, P. J, "'The First Major Step in the Peace Process'? Exploring the Impact of the Anglo-Irish Agreement on Irish Republican Thinking", Irish Political Studies, 29(1), pp.116~133 (2014)
- Mitchel D., "Sport and strategic peacebuilding: Northern Ireland and Korea compared", Peacebuilding, 10(1), pp.37~50 (2022)
- "Divided Korea Can Learn from Northern Ireland's Peace Process" (2017)[URL]
- "Address by President Moon Jae-in on the May 26th Inter-Korean Summit" (2018)[URL]
- Nagle, J., "Consociationalism is Dead! Long Live Zombie Power-Sharing! Special Issue: Challenges to Power-Sharing in the Post-Uprisings", Arab World, 20(2), pp.137~144 (2020)
- Nah, L. T., "Explaining North Korean Nuclear Weapons Motivations: Constructivism, Liberalism and Realism", North Korean Review, 9(1) (2013)
- Sachio Nakato, "North Korea’s Second Nuclear Test: Neoclassical Realism Perspectives", Pacific Focus, 27(1), pp.10~35 (2012), 국제관계연구소[DOI]
- O'Leary, B., "The Limits to Coercive Consociationalism in Northern Ireland", Political Studies, 37, pp.562~588 (1989)
- "The Trump-Kim DMZ' Handshake Summit': What it changes and What it Doesn't Change" (2019)[URL]
- "The Hanoi Summit Was Doomed From the Start" (2019)[URL]
- 박영호, "한반도 통일에 대한 남북한의 시각과 남북관계", 전략연구, 21(61), pp.281~323 (2014), (사) 한국전략문제연구소
- "Bob Woodward Said Trump Nearly Provoked North Korea into War with a Single Tweet" (2018)[URL]
- Rose, G., "Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy", World Politics, 51, pp.144~172 (1998)
- "Why Did the Hanoi Summit Fail and What Comes Next? Coverage in Four Countries" (2019)[URL]
- Bernhard Seliger, "TEN YEARS AFTER GERMAN ECONOMIC UNIFICATION: ARE THERE ANY LESSONS FOR KOREAN UNIFICATION?", International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, 10(1), pp.117~141 (2001), 통일연구원
- Selway, J., "The myth of consociationalism? Conflict reduction in divided societies", Comparative Political Studies, 45, pp.1542~1571 (2012)
- Shin, G. W., "Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy" (2006), Stanford University Press
- 신진욱, "Lessons from German Reunification for Inter-Korean Relations:An Analysis of South Korean Public Spheres, 1990–2010", Asian Perspective, 38(1), pp.61~88 (2014), 극동문제연구소
- Snyder, S., "The Price of Peace: Incentives and International Conflict Prevention", pp.55~82 (1997), Carnegie Corporation of New York
- "The Good Friday Agreement", ~ (1998)
- "The New Decade, New Approach Deal", ~ (2020)
- "The Singapore Summit Joint Statement", ~ (2018)
- "Trump's 2017 U.N. speech transcript" (2017)[URL]
- Trzciński, K., "Consociationalism Meets Centripetalism: Hybrid Power-sharing", Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 28, pp.313~331 (2022)
- Wilson, M. C., "A Closer Look at the Limits of Consociationalism", Comparative Political Studies, 53(5), pp.700~733 (2020)
- Wolff, S., "Aspects of the Belfast Agreement", pp.11~27 (2001), Oxford University Press
