The Reasons for the Impasse Over North Korea’s Nuclear Program
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study tries to find out the reasons for the 26 years of impasse over the North Korean nuclear program. This study focuses on three dimensions. On the North Korean side, the siege mentality with a ‘sense of collective victimhood’ has helped consolidation of its leadership by its clear group membership, but has resulted in an excessive obsession over regime collapse. Such behavior by North Korea has fostered the ‘securitization paradigm’ on the South Korean and American side. This aggravated mutual distrust. In this case a military option seems to be the only solution. However, the geographical disadvantage of South Korea - a half of its population lives within North Korea’s artillery range, and the hegemonic struggle over the Korean peninsula, especially between the US and China made it hostage for a military option. The reasons for the diplomatic failure of Washington and Seoul can be attributed to mutual distrust, misperception and wishful-thinking. This study offers a step-by-step approach with a snapback mechanism as a policy option.
Abstract
This study tries to find out the reasons for the 26 years of impasse over the North Korean nuclear program. This study focuses on three dimensions. On the North Korean side, the siege mentality with a ‘sense of collective victimhood’ has helped consolidation of its leadership by its clear group membership, but has resulted in an excessive obsession over regime collapse. Such behavior by North Korea has fostered the ‘securitization paradigm’ on the South Korean and American side. This aggravated mutual distrust. In this case a military option seems to be the only solution. However, the geographical disadvantage of South Korea - a half of its population lives within North Korea’s artillery range, and the hegemonic struggle over the Korean peninsula, especially between the US and China made it hostage for a military option. The reasons for the diplomatic failure of Washington and Seoul can be attributed to mutual distrust, misperception and wishful-thinking. This study offers a step-by-step approach with a snapback mechanism as a policy option.
참고문헌 (43)
- "The Siege Mentality Problem" (2017)[URL]
- Cumings, Bruce, "Mistaske, Once Again", Creation & Criticism, 32(1), pp.358~377 (2004)
- "After Hanoi, Remember the Risks of not Engaging North Korea" (2019)[URL]
- "Negotiating With North Korea" (2019)[URL]
- Eberstadt, Nicholas, "The End of North Korea" (1999), American Enterprise Institute Press
- Foster-Carter, Aiden, "Obama Comes out as an NK Collapsist", 38North, ~ (2015)
- "Lessons to be Learned from Negotiating with North Korea" (2019)[URL]
- Geertz, Clifford, "Negara: The Theatre State in Nineteenth-Century Bali" (1980), Princeton University Press
- Hecker, Siegfried, "The stage may be set for progress at the Trump-Kim summit", The Washington Post, ~ (2019)
- Hecker, Siegfried, "The More We Wait, The Worse It Will Get", 38 North, ~ (2019)
- The North Korean Nuclear Challenge: Military Options and Issues for Congress, "McInnis, Kathleen", CRS, ~ (2017)
- Nikitin, Mary Beth, "Focus Congressional Research Service" (2019)
- Review of United States Policy Toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations, "Perry, William", Office of the North Korea Policy Coordinator, United States Department of State, ~ (1999)
- Perry, William, "My Journey at the Nuclear Brink" (2016), Stanford University Press
- Putnam, Robert D, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: the Logic of Two-level Games", International Organization, 42(3), pp.427~460 (1988)
- "In North Korea, Surgical Strike Could Spin Into ‘Worst Kind of Fighting’" (2017)[URL]
- "A Republican Paradigm Shift on North Korea: Prospects and Implications" (2019)[URL]
- "Talking to the North Koreans The" (2001)[URL]
- Smith, Hazel, "Bad, mad, sad or rational actor? Why the ‘securitization’ paradigm makes for poor policy analysis of north Korea", International Affairs, 78(1), pp.111~132 (2000)
- Sneider, Daniel, "The Dangers of Decoupling in Northeast Asia", Asia Policy, 13(1), pp.136~139 (2018)
- 전성훈, "비핵화외교의 실패와 한국의 전략적 대응", 전략연구, 26(2), pp.205~232 (2019), (사) 한국전략문제연구소[DOI]
- North Korea’s Nuclear Development Strategy and its Prospect, "Chio, Yong-hwan", Gyeonggi Research Institute, ~, pp.Policy Studies 2010-42 (2010)
- 하상식, "미국의 북한 비핵화 정책 실패와 한미공조 과제", 국제정치연구, 19(2), pp.1~34 (2016), 동아시아국제정치학회[DOI]
- Ha, Sang-sik, "The Two Koreas’ Unifacation Dilemma" (2016), Haenam Publication
- 정지웅, "북한 붕괴론 논쟁 탐구", 통일과 평화, 9(1), pp.162~194 (2017), 통일평화연구원[DOI]
- Kim, Yeon-chul, "In Front of Mirror: the Division System and North Korea’s Change", Creation & Criticism, 43(3), pp.42~60 (2015)
- 고유환, "분단 70년 북한연구 경향에 관한 고찰", 통일정책연구, 24(1), pp.29~54 (2015), 통일연구원
- Lee, Nam-joo, "Resolving Division or Overcoming Division System?", Creation & Criticism, 46(1), pp.18~ (2018)
- Chung-in Moon, "THE BUSH DOCTRINE AND THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CRISIS", Asian Perspective, 27(4), pp.9~45 (2003), 극동문제연구소
- Moon, Chung-in, "After Hanoi: Disucssion with Moon Chung-in", Kwanhun Journal, 61(2), pp.162~228 (2019)
- "Kim Jong-un’s Denuclearization Formula" (2018)[URL]
- 신범철, "2018-2019 비핵화 프로세스를 통해 본 북한의 전략적 의도 분석", 전략연구, 26(2), pp.37~76 (2019), (사) 한국전략문제연구소[DOI]
- "The Constitution of the People’s Republic of Korea(Amended on 2016", 06, 04, pp.11)
- Wada, Haruki, "North Korea" (1998), Dolbegae Publishers
- Wada, Haruki, "Modern History of North Korea" (2012), Changbi Publishers
- 우정엽, "북한의 불완전 비핵화와 한미 동맹의 문제", 전략연구, 26(2), pp.111~137 (2019), (사) 한국전략문제연구소[DOI]
- 윤덕민, "핵무장을 둘러싼 북한의 전략 평가: 왜 우리는 북한 핵무장을 막는데 실패하고 있는가?", 전략연구, 26(2), pp.7~36 (2019), (사) 한국전략문제연구소[DOI]
- "Factbox: Previous U.S. comments about Kim Jong-il" (2007)[URL]
- "Washington want to keep momentum of US-North Korea dialogue" (2019)[URL]
- "Important Events from 2009 to Present"[URL]
- "New Facts about the Korean Peninsula that Wikileaks revealed" (2010)[URL]
- "Unification comes like thief" (2011)[URL]
- "North Koreans, Come S. Korea anytimes" (2016)[URL]