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Whither Goes Russia-DPRK Partnership? Outlook through Five Scenarios

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This article examines the recent developments in the partnership between Russia and North Korea, analyzing the implications of the bilateral summit and the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement signed in June 2024. The article reviews the historical context, challenges, and opportunities facing bilateral relations leading up to the Putin-Kim summit in Pyongyang. After assessing the bilateral partnership’s impact on regional security and the broader geopolitical landscape, the article explores five potential scenarios for the future trajectory of Russia-North Korea relations. Each scenario weighs the gains and risks for both countries in their partnership. Finally, the paper concludes with policy recommendations for the South Korean government to mitigate the expansion of the Russia-North Korea partnership.

Abstract

This article examines the recent developments in the partnership between Russia and North Korea, analyzing the implications of the bilateral summit and the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement signed in June 2024. The article reviews the historical context, challenges, and opportunities facing bilateral relations leading up to the Putin-Kim summit in Pyongyang. After assessing the bilateral partnership’s impact on regional security and the broader geopolitical landscape, the article explores five potential scenarios for the future trajectory of Russia-North Korea relations. Each scenario weighs the gains and risks for both countries in their partnership. Finally, the paper concludes with policy recommendations for the South Korean government to mitigate the expansion of the Russia-North Korea partnership.

참고문헌 (67)

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