Kim Jong Un’s Nuclear Posture: Is North Korea Capable of Initiating a Nuclear War?
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
North Korea, under Kim Jong Un, has shifted its nuclear posture from an assured retaliation to an asymmetric escalation strategy, developing low-yield tactical nuclear weapons aimed at South Korea while diversifying delivery systems. However, North Korea faces critical limitations in executing a limited nuclear war: environmental fallout, command and control vulnerabilities, lack of credible second-strike capability, and overwhelming ROK-U.S. retaliatory forces. Despite nuclear threats, structural weaknesses and strategic imbalance make North Korea’s nuclear warfighting plans implausible. The study concludes that the ROK and the U.S. must maintain and strengthen their comprehensive response capabilities and resolve so that North Korea clearly recognizes its limitations.
Abstract
North Korea, under Kim Jong Un, has shifted its nuclear posture from an assured retaliation to an asymmetric escalation strategy, developing low-yield tactical nuclear weapons aimed at South Korea while diversifying delivery systems. However, North Korea faces critical limitations in executing a limited nuclear war: environmental fallout, command and control vulnerabilities, lack of credible second-strike capability, and overwhelming ROK-U.S. retaliatory forces. Despite nuclear threats, structural weaknesses and strategic imbalance make North Korea’s nuclear warfighting plans implausible. The study concludes that the ROK and the U.S. must maintain and strengthen their comprehensive response capabilities and resolve so that North Korea clearly recognizes its limitations.