중국 위안화 환율 변화가 한국의 대중 수출에서 미치는 효과 분석

Abstract

According to the study based on impulse response function(IRF) and variance decomposition(DV), an appreciation of Chinese Yuan negatively affects Korean exports to China regardless of types of exports(intermediate goods, capital goods, and consumption goods). The results are the same as previous studies. The results are plausible in that appreciation of Yuan make price competitiveness of Chinese export goods weak in the world market, and in turn, Chinese exports and GDP decreases and as the results, Korean exports to China also decreases. We call it income effect of Yuan exchange rates. As well known, appreciation of a currency(for example Yuan) can positively affect other country's exports(for example Korean export to China) because the import price(nominated in import country currency) decreases as the results of the appreciation. It is called price effect of exchange rate. In the case of Korean exports to China, the negative income effect of Yuan exchange rates seems to overwhelm the positive price effect. Although there is no differences in the signs of impulse response functions by the type of export goods, we find the difference in the magnitude of them. The IRFs in capital and consumption goods are larger than IRFs in intermediate goods. It is expected results because demand of intermediate goods depends on demand of final goods such as capital and consumption goods. Also, it is found that based on Variance decomposition analysis, in explaining changes of Korean export to China, Yuan exchange rates are more important than Chinese GDP. The results are the same regardless of the types of export goods.