한중무역구조에 대한 위안화 환율변화 효과
Effects of the Exchange Rate Variation on the Korean-Chinese Trade Structure
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The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of exchange rate variation of the Chinese Yuan on the Korean-Chinese trade structure, based on the Johansen co-integration tests among the real exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan(RE), the trade specialization index(TSI) and revealed comparative advantage index(RCA). The indices of the latter two are categorized according to not only industries which traded- commodities belong to and but also their characteristics. Some important results are as follows: There may be no significant effect of the RE on the TSI of total Korean trade to China, while there are some meaningful results, if the data are dis-aggregated. In the short run, an appreciation of the RE positively affects the TSIs for IT goods and heavy industrial products. In the long run, its initial effects disappear as the trade imbalance rather affects the RE. If the data are dis-aggregated according to commodity uses, the slight positive long-term effects of the RE on the TSIs for raw materials and capital goods can be found, though their short-term ones are statistically insignificant. In the case of direct consumer's goods, an appreciation shortly affects positively, but negatively TSI in the long run because of the so-called income effects. The significantly positive effects of the RE on the RCA for Korean trade to China can be confirmed in the short run only for IT goods according to industrial sectors. In the long run, however, they disappear or an improvement of RCA, i.e., international competitiveness, affects so far as the exchange rate, especially in the case of light industrial products and of IT goods. By commodity use, the short effects of the RE on RCAs are ambiguous, but the long-term positive effects of the RE on RCAs are found, especially very elastic in the case of capital goods.
Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of exchange rate variation of the Chinese Yuan on the Korean-Chinese trade structure, based on the Johansen co-integration tests among the real exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan(RE), the trade specialization index(TSI) and revealed comparative advantage index(RCA). The indices of the latter two are categorized according to not only industries which traded- commodities belong to and but also their characteristics. Some important results are as follows: There may be no significant effect of the RE on the TSI of total Korean trade to China, while there are some meaningful results, if the data are dis-aggregated. In the short run, an appreciation of the RE positively affects the TSIs for IT goods and heavy industrial products. In the long run, its initial effects disappear as the trade imbalance rather affects the RE. If the data are dis-aggregated according to commodity uses, the slight positive long-term effects of the RE on the TSIs for raw materials and capital goods can be found, though their short-term ones are statistically insignificant. In the case of direct consumer's goods, an appreciation shortly affects positively, but negatively TSI in the long run because of the so-called income effects. The significantly positive effects of the RE on the RCA for Korean trade to China can be confirmed in the short run only for IT goods according to industrial sectors. In the long run, however, they disappear or an improvement of RCA, i.e., international competitiveness, affects so far as the exchange rate, especially in the case of light industrial products and of IT goods. By commodity use, the short effects of the RE on RCAs are ambiguous, but the long-term positive effects of the RE on RCAs are found, especially very elastic in the case of capital goods.
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