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고해상도 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 활용한 한라산 지역 기온 및 기후대 변화 전망

Projections of Changing Temperature and Climate Zones over Mt.Halla, Korea using High Resolution Climate Change Scenario Data

최광용
기후연구소 (KU Climate Research Institute)|2017.09|기후연구 (Journal of Climate Research)|제12권 제3호|pp. 243-257|DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.14383/cri.2017.12.3.243

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기후변화climate change한라산Mt. Halla기후대PRIDEPRISM 기반 상세화 추정 모델 (PRIDE)climate zones

초록

The purpose of this study is to quantify the magnitudes of projected 21 st century temperature changes and shifting climate zones over Mt. Halla, Korea based on high-resolution (1km×1km) climate change scenario data sets down-scaled from a global climate model (HadGEM2-AO) simulations using PRIDE (PRISM based Downscaling Estimation Model) as well as the simulations of a Regional Climate Model (RCM; HadGEM3-R A). The high resolution climate data demonstrate that the magnitudes of increases in coldest and warmest monthly mean temperatures over Mt. Halla will exceed those of the averages across the Korean Peninsula during the 21 st century, leading to the shifts of climate zones. The isoline with 5°C (20°C) of the coldest (warmest) monthly average temperature associated with sub-tropical (sub-alpine) climate zones will migrate from 100~230m (950~1,300m) to 300~500m (1,300~1,600m) of altitude in the late 21 st century (2071~2100) under the RCP 4.5 scenario. These changes are expected to be more obviously observed in the south flank of Mt. Halla as well as under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These results indicate that changes in climate zones will lead to the extinction of sub-alpine ecosystems over Mt. Halla due to increases of summertime heat stress as well as to the expansion of the sub-tropical forest zone toward mid-mountain regions due to reduction of wintertime stress in the warmer 21 st century.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to quantify the magnitudes of projected 21 st century temperature changes and shifting climate zones over Mt. Halla, Korea based on high-resolution (1km×1km) climate change scenario data sets down-scaled from a global climate model (HadGEM2-AO) simulations using PRIDE (PRISM based Downscaling Estimation Model) as well as the simulations of a Regional Climate Model (RCM; HadGEM3-R A). The high resolution climate data demonstrate that the magnitudes of increases in coldest and warmest monthly mean temperatures over Mt. Halla will exceed those of the averages across the Korean Peninsula during the 21 st century, leading to the shifts of climate zones. The isoline with 5°C (20°C) of the coldest (warmest) monthly average temperature associated with sub-tropical (sub-alpine) climate zones will migrate from 100~230m (950~1,300m) to 300~500m (1,300~1,600m) of altitude in the late 21 st century (2071~2100) under the RCP 4.5 scenario. These changes are expected to be more obviously observed in the south flank of Mt. Halla as well as under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These results indicate that changes in climate zones will lead to the extinction of sub-alpine ecosystems over Mt. Halla due to increases of summertime heat stress as well as to the expansion of the sub-tropical forest zone toward mid-mountain regions due to reduction of wintertime stress in the warmer 21 st century.

참고문헌 (39)

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