우리나라 겨울철 온난화가 미래 산림 분포의 변화에 미치는 영향
The Impacts of Winter Warming on the Future Forest Changes in the Republic of Korea
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In this study, we examined the impacts of winter warming on the expected future forest change in the Republic of Korea (ROK) by analyzing winter temperature and the minimum temperature of the coldest month index (MTCI). The historical and future climate data from 60 Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) stations, MK-PRISMv2.1, SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used. During the period of 1973-2020, the winter mean temperature increased by 0.3°C/10 years which was greater than the annual mean temperature (0.2°C/10 years) over the ROK with larger variabilities. In the far future (2081-2100), the winter mean temperature is expected to rise 2.9°C under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and 6.7°C under the SSP5-8.5, compared to those in the near future (2021-2040). The potential ratio of evergreen needle-leaved trees estimated by MTCI in ROK is projected to decrease with 13.9% under the SSP1-2.6 and 31.8% under the SSP5-8.5, except for the Pinus thunbergii which has higher MTCI. As a result of the overlapping climate types and MTCI, in the far future of the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the expected regions of Camellia japonica and the area of Cfa type were almost identical. Although the potential ratio of Camellia japonica in the far future of the SSP5-8.5 scenario is expanded to 57.5%, the coastal regions of the southern and Jeju areas in Cfa have been excluded from the Camellia japonica range due to rising the winter temperature.
Abstract
In this study, we examined the impacts of winter warming on the expected future forest change in the Republic of Korea (ROK) by analyzing winter temperature and the minimum temperature of the coldest month index (MTCI). The historical and future climate data from 60 Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) stations, MK-PRISMv2.1, SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used. During the period of 1973-2020, the winter mean temperature increased by 0.3°C/10 years which was greater than the annual mean temperature (0.2°C/10 years) over the ROK with larger variabilities. In the far future (2081-2100), the winter mean temperature is expected to rise 2.9°C under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and 6.7°C under the SSP5-8.5, compared to those in the near future (2021-2040). The potential ratio of evergreen needle-leaved trees estimated by MTCI in ROK is projected to decrease with 13.9% under the SSP1-2.6 and 31.8% under the SSP5-8.5, except for the Pinus thunbergii which has higher MTCI. As a result of the overlapping climate types and MTCI, in the far future of the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the expected regions of Camellia japonica and the area of Cfa type were almost identical. Although the potential ratio of Camellia japonica in the far future of the SSP5-8.5 scenario is expanded to 57.5%, the coastal regions of the southern and Jeju areas in Cfa have been excluded from the Camellia japonica range due to rising the winter temperature.
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