SSP 시나리오에 따른 21세기 우리나라 극한기후현상 고노출 지역 변화 전망
Projections of Changes in High Exposure Hot Spots of Extreme Climate Events in South Korea in the 21st Century under SSP Scenarios
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The purpose of this study is to uncover future hot spots highly exposed to more frequent extreme climate events by quantifying changes in extreme climate indices for the future (2021-2100) compared to the present 2000-2019) at Si-Gun-Gu administrative unit scale in the Republic of Korea. To do this, high-resolution (1km×1km grids) extreme climate indices from ground observation reanalysis data (2000-2019) in Korea (MK-PRISM ver. 2.1) and from modeled climate change scenario data (2021-2100) for South Korea based on the latest SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) greenhouse gas emission scenarios were analyzed. Extreme high temperature (EHT) indices and extreme high precipitation (EHP) indices at each 20-year interval were spatio-temporally averaged by Si-GunGu administrative unit. Subsequently they were standardized and averaged across multiple extreme climate indices. The results show that under the high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Seoul metropolitan region as well as cities in the southern region of the Korean Peninsula are expected to be the high exposure hot spots of EHT events such as heat wave day in the later 21st century. In contrast, the high exposure hot spots of EHP events such as heavy rain day are projected to be modified from the central-western inland regions and southern coastal regions including Jeju Island to the southern coastal regions including Jeju Island and northeastern coastal regions in the late 21st century. This information can be used as basic data in developing national climate change response policies at the Si-GunGu administrative unit scale in preparation for extreme climate in the warmer and wetter 21st century.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to uncover future hot spots highly exposed to more frequent extreme climate events by quantifying changes in extreme climate indices for the future (2021-2100) compared to the present 2000-2019) at Si-Gun-Gu administrative unit scale in the Republic of Korea. To do this, high-resolution (1km×1km grids) extreme climate indices from ground observation reanalysis data (2000-2019) in Korea (MK-PRISM ver. 2.1) and from modeled climate change scenario data (2021-2100) for South Korea based on the latest SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) greenhouse gas emission scenarios were analyzed. Extreme high temperature (EHT) indices and extreme high precipitation (EHP) indices at each 20-year interval were spatio-temporally averaged by Si-GunGu administrative unit. Subsequently they were standardized and averaged across multiple extreme climate indices. The results show that under the high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Seoul metropolitan region as well as cities in the southern region of the Korean Peninsula are expected to be the high exposure hot spots of EHT events such as heat wave day in the later 21st century. In contrast, the high exposure hot spots of EHP events such as heavy rain day are projected to be modified from the central-western inland regions and southern coastal regions including Jeju Island to the southern coastal regions including Jeju Island and northeastern coastal regions in the late 21st century. This information can be used as basic data in developing national climate change response policies at the Si-GunGu administrative unit scale in preparation for extreme climate in the warmer and wetter 21st century.
참고문헌 (28)
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