지정학적 중간국 우즈베키스탄의 대외전략: ‘전략적 헤징’의 시각
The International Strategy of Uzbekistan as a Geopolitical In-Between State: From the Perspective of ‘Strategic Hedging’
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이 글의 시각은, 우즈베키스탄 대외정책의 진화 과정은 실용주의 관점의 외교 다변화, 개방적･관여적 멀티-벡터리즘(multi-vectorism) 등으로도 설명될 수 있지만, 우즈벡 대외정책의 ‘자립(self-reliance)’ 노선을 실현해 온 접근법･전략을 ‘헤징(hedging)’ 개념으로 더 명료하게 이해할 수 있다는 데서 출발한다. 이 연구의 목적은 약 4반세기에 이르는 카리모프 시기 동안 국가간 관계의 주요 계기들에서 타슈켄트의 헤징 행위를 유발한 인과관계들을 ‘전략적 헤징(strategic hedging)’의 경험적 기준에 따라 설명하는 데 있다. 다음으로 미르지요예프 시기의 대외정책 역시 전통적 자립 노선의 기본 원칙들을 유지하고 있으며, 변화된 환경과 도전 요인들에 대한 새로운 접근법･전략도 동일한 헤징 개념으로 설명될 수 있다고 본다. 카리모프 대외정책의 자립 노선 접근법과 비교하여 미르지요예프 시기의 그것은 어떤 차이점이 있는가도 밝혀질 것이다. 2020년대의 글로벌･지역 환경, 우즈베키스탄 대외정책의 전통적 자립 노선, 그리고 지도부의 인식과 입지를 고려하면, 자립 노선의 실천 방도로서 전략적 헤징은 당분간 검증된 유효성을 잃지 않을 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
Whereas the evolutionary process of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy can also be explained by diplomatic diversification from a pragmatist perspective, open and involved multi-vectorism, the perspective of this article starts from the idea that the approach/strategy which have been realizing the line of ‘self-reliance’ of Uzbek foreign policy can be understood more clearly through the concept of ‘hedging’. The purpose of this study is to explain the causal relationships that triggered the hedging behavior of Tashkent in the critical moments of inter-state relations during the Karimov period, which spanned about a quarter century, in accordance with the empirical standard of ‘strategic hedging’. Next, the foreign policy of the Mirziyoyev period also maintains the basic principles of the traditional line of self-reliance and a new approach/strategy to the changing environment and challenges can be explained by the same concept of hedging. It will be demonstrated what differences are there between the approach of the Karimov’s self-reliance and that of the Mirziyoyev period. Considering the global and regional environment of the 2020s, the traditional line of self-reliance in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy, and the perception and position of the leadership, strategic hedging as a way to practice the foreign policy line of the self-reliance is unlikely to lose its proven effectiveness for the foreseeable future.
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