왜 러시아는 “대국정체성”을 외교에서 최우선시하는가?: 2015년 시리아 위기에서 러시아의 군사개입에 관한 실증연구
Why Russia Prioritizes “Great Power Identity” in Diplomacy?: An Empirical Research of Russia’s Military Intervention in the Syrian Crisis of 2015
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2015년 러시아가 시리아 위기에 관여한 이후부터, 외교정책 연구분야 전문가들은 러시아의 이와 같은 행동의 논리와 동기를 이해하기 위하여 많은 노력을 기울이고 있다. 여기서 가장 핵심적인 연구주제는 다음의 질문들이었다. 우크라이나 위기에 관여한 이후 엄청난 대가를 지불했음에도 불구하고, 왜 러시아는 본연의 정책노선을 변경하지 않았는가? 또한 왜 러시아는 오히려 우크라이나 위기에 상응하는 수준의 위험을 감수하면서까지 시리아 위기에서 군사작전을 감행하기로 결정했는가? 상술한 문제들에 관해 설득력 있는 해답을 찾기 위하여, 논문의 저자들은 “대국정체성이론”에 기반한 해석방법을 제시하고자 한다. 결론적으로 말하면, 러시아가 인식하고 있는 스스로의 대국정체성과 대국지위야말로 러시아가 극단적 대외정책을 선택하게 되는 가장 근본적인 원인이었다.
Abstract
Since Russia’s intervention in the Syrian crisis of 2015, foreign policy experts have been trying to understand the logic and motivation behind this move. What is puzzling here is that, after intervening in the Ukrainian crisis and suffering from significant economic and reputational losses, Russia not only stuck to its original policies, but also launched a military operation in Syria with the same level of risk. What kind of logic does this high-risk foreign policy follow? Why is Russia still willing to take this risk again and suffer from inevitable huge losses? In order to answer these questions, the authors propose the Theory of Great Power Identity, and claim that Great Power Identity and its related status concerns are the main reasons behind Russia’s foreign policy. By analyzing Russia’s decision to intervene in the Syrian crisis, the authors attempt to prove that Russia’s Syria campaign fits well the theoretical framework of the Theory of Great Power Identity. In conclusion, the main goal of the campaign was to promote Russia’s international status.
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