자본축적과 분배의 동학: 칼레츠키언 실증연구의 비판적 검토와 대안
Dynamics of Capital Accumulation and Distribution: A Critique and Alternative to Kaleckian Empirical Approaches
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바두리와 마글린(Bhaduri and Marglin, 1990)은 분배가 경제성장에 미치는 양면적인 영향을 통합 설명하는 모형을 제시하여 이후 임금주도/이윤주도 체제를 식별하는 숱한 연구들을 이끌어냈다. 그러나 이들 칼레츠키언 실증 논의들은 동일한 경제에 대해서도 분석 기간과 방법에 따라 상충되는 결과들에 부딪히고 있다. 그래서우리는 바두리·마글린 모형을 재검토하면서 기존의 임금/이윤주도 체제 구분 뿐만아니라 자본축적을 둘러싼 대립적/협력적 체제 구분 또한 유의미하며 이는 분석의시계 및 비선형성과 더불어 후속 실증연구들이 간과한 중요한 쟁점임을 비판하였다. 그리고 이를 고려하여 주요 변수들의 추세 요소와 사이클 요소를 나누어 비교하는 대안을 제시, 1961년부터 2014년까지의 미국경제를 사례로 분석하고 이를 자기회귀분포시차모형(ARDL)-한계검정법을 이용한 계량검증으로 부연하였다. 그 결과자본축적과 분배의 동학에는 줄잡아 협력적 임금주도 체제의 경향을 보이는 추세와이윤주도 체제의 경향을 보이는 사이클이 결합되어 있으며, 사이클 요소의 누적에따라 시기별로 추세가 이윤압박 또는 이윤주도와 같은 대립적 체제의 특징을 보일수 있음을 확인하였다. 이는 기존의 모순된 실증 결과들을 통합적으로 설명할 수있으며 동시에 칼레츠키적 접근과 마르크스적 접근의 공통 지반과 차이를 드러내는것이기도 하다.
Abstract
A seminal paper by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990) provided a unifying model that allows for the contrary effects of distribution on economic growth, and it motivated a huge body of empirical literature on wage-and profit-led growth. However, these (neo) Kaleckian approaches obtain different results for the same economy, depending on time ranges and methodologies. Instead, through rereading the Bhaduri-Marglin model, we note not only the conventional dis- tinction between wage-and profit-led regimes but the one between conflictual and cooperative regimes still matters. Besides, we highlight that the time horizon and non-linearity are another important issues in the original model, though overlooked by empirical studies. Based on this critique, a decomposing of the trend and cyclical components of the core variables such as the accumulation rate, wage share and capacity utilization rate is proposed as an alternative. With a case analysis of the U.S. economy from 1961 to 2014, we find that the roughly cooperative wage-led trend and conflictual profit-led cycle are combined in the dynamics of capital accumulation and distribution over the period, and that the trend can switch over to that of a conflictual regime with the cumulative effect of cycles. This point gets additional support through an econometric estimation using ARDL-bounds testing. Our findings can explain previous conflicting results and reveal the commonalities and differences between the Kaleckian and Marxian approaches.
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