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분배, 수요 그리고 내생적 기술진보: 불안정의 동학

Dynamic Instability of Distribution, Demand and Endogenous Technical Progress

정상준
한국사회경제학회 (Korean Association for Political Economy)|2023.02|사회경제평론 (The Review of Social & Economic Studies)|제36권 제1호|pp. 161-197|DOI 10.17964/rses.2023.36.1.161

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참고문헌

키워드

균형성장Balanced Growth마르크스 효과칼도-버둔 효과굿윈 사이클Classical-Marx EffectKaldor-Verdoorn EffectGoodwin Cycle
주제분류경제학

초록

임금몫 상승이 노동절약적 기술혁신을 유도하는 ‘(고전학파)-마르크스 효과’와 총수요 증가가 노동생산성 상승을 촉진하는 ‘칼도-버둔 효과’는 비주류 경제학의 내생적 기술진보 논의를 대표한다. 이들은 고용률과 분배몫의 순환을 안정화하는 기제(Neo-Marxian) 또는 수요체제를 보완하여 임금주도 성장을 지원할 생산성체제의 요소(Post Keynesian) 등 성장-분배 연구에서 대체로 긍정적인 장치로 수용되어왔지만, 두 효과가 상당 수준으로 함께 발휘될 경우 관련 경제변수들이 불안정해질 가능성은 간과되거나 간접적으로만 함의되어 왔다. 그래서 이 연구는 수요제약을 포함하고 노동생산성 및 자본생산성의 변화를 내생화하도록 Goodwin 사이클을 확장하여, 임금몫과 수요에 기반한 이들 두 기술진보가 안정적인 균형성장에 기여할 조건이 사실 상충되며 제약적임을 보이고, 미국경제를 사례로 이 같은 분석의 개연성을 평가한다. 결국 노동대중이 분배와 수요, 고용 모두에서 이로운 결과를 안정적으로 얻으려는 기획은 이윤추구를 위해 끊임없이 임금 삭감과 기술혁신이 강제되는 자본주의 축적법칙과 양립하기 어렵다.

Abstract

In alternative economic theories, there has been extensive debate surrounding endogenous technical change, with a predominant focus on the positive correlation between the wage share and labor productivity (Classical-Marx effect) and the relationship between technical progress and output growth (Kaldor-Verdoorn effect). These effects have been considered important either as a dampener of the cyclical relationship between distribution and economic activity in NeoMarxian theory or as a key element of the productivity regime supporting wageled growth in Post Keynesian theory. However, there has been little or only implicit attention given to the possibility of longrun instability when these two effects are combined. To address this gap, this study employs the demand-constrained Goodwin's growth-cycle framework, which incorporates endogenous labor and capital productivity, to demonstrate that the simultaneous occurrence of the Classical-Marx and KaldorVerdoorn effects is contradictory and limits the possibility of achieving balanced growth. We corroborate our theoretical findings with practical snapshots of the U.S economy. Our preliminary results suggest that the objective of achieving and maintaining a stable balance between favorable income distribution and employment, while also ensuring a high level of aggregate demand, is incompatible with the capitalistic system, where a turbulent process of ferocious competition that lowers costs through wage reduction and technological change prevails.

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