The Soviet Union's Economic and Political Implosion…The Fate of North Korea?
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This paper examines the outlook for North Korea’s economic and political future. It argues that North Korea will most probably meet its demise in the same way as did the former Soviet Union. That is, an economic implosion will occur causing the political collapse of North Korea. Contrary to popular belief that North Korea would sustain itself if it reformed its economic policies, this paper argues that, regardless of reform, North Korea will not be able to avoid the collapse of the state*and the Kim regime, for that matter. The only impact reform will have is with regard to time as it will merely delay the process of North Korea’s collapse. The author wishes to stress that these assessments of North Korea’s future will probably show a greater impact after Kim Jong Il has passed. It is unlikely that North Korea or the regime will collapse under Kim Jong Il’s reign because his regime still has a strong authoritative grip over his state, which he controls by being the commander of the North Korean People’s Army and various paramilitary apparatuses, and by control of the media. However, the decisions that Kim Jong Il makes now will be the indirect cause of various unintended consequences in the future. Once the economy of North Korea develops core values that are somewhat similar to the South’s, it is highly likely that Seoul, with its economic leverage, will gain political leverage over Pyongyang. This will ultimately have its effects in reunifying the Korean peninsula under Seoul’s terms after Kim Jong Il’s passing. The author reiterates that both, the status quo or the reform option, will eventually lead to the North’s collapse. The difference will be in regard to when.
Abstract
This paper examines the outlook for North Korea’s economic and political future. It argues that North Korea will most probably meet its demise in the same way as did the former Soviet Union. That is, an economic implosion will occur causing the political collapse of North Korea. Contrary to popular belief that North Korea would sustain itself if it reformed its economic policies, this paper argues that, regardless of reform, North Korea will not be able to avoid the collapse of the state*and the Kim regime, for that matter. The only impact reform will have is with regard to time as it will merely delay the process of North Korea’s collapse. The author wishes to stress that these assessments of North Korea’s future will probably show a greater impact after Kim Jong Il has passed. It is unlikely that North Korea or the regime will collapse under Kim Jong Il’s reign because his regime still has a strong authoritative grip over his state, which he controls by being the commander of the North Korean People’s Army and various paramilitary apparatuses, and by control of the media. However, the decisions that Kim Jong Il makes now will be the indirect cause of various unintended consequences in the future. Once the economy of North Korea develops core values that are somewhat similar to the South’s, it is highly likely that Seoul, with its economic leverage, will gain political leverage over Pyongyang. This will ultimately have its effects in reunifying the Korean peninsula under Seoul’s terms after Kim Jong Il’s passing. The author reiterates that both, the status quo or the reform option, will eventually lead to the North’s collapse. The difference will be in regard to when.
참고문헌 (15)
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