The Security Crisis in Korea and its International Context: Sources and Lessons from a Russian Perspective
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Despite constant fluctuations between tensions and detente on the Korean peninsula,the crisis in 2010, including the Cheonan sinking and the Yeonpyong Island shelling has proved to become the most dangerous in decades—without obvious new reasons or new contradictions to justify it. After President Lee Myung Bak’s coming to power in South Korea, Pyongyang developed suspicions over his new hard-line stance and demands for denuclearization. North Korea thought that Seoul’s call for reforms were merely a cover to undermine their regime and it took seriously the desire by Southern conservatives for “early reunification” and thus resorted to military provocations. Meanwhile, the U.S. Obama administration chose to abstain from any meaningful policy toward North Korea, while China played a more active role in supporting Pyongyang and Russian policy, which is based on the priority of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. All issues should be decided by political and diplomatic means without the use of force,threats, pressure, or isolation. Improvements in North-South relations, DPRK dialogue with the West, and a multilateral format are essential prerequisites for realizing a new security system in Korea that takes into account the interests of all parties. Only this can avert a new crisis. The author suggests a return to engagement and the promotion of slow evolutionary changes in North Korea by giving the current ruling elite tangible guarantees of security on the condition that the North would change its domestic and international behavior.
Abstract
Despite constant fluctuations between tensions and detente on the Korean peninsula,the crisis in 2010, including the Cheonan sinking and the Yeonpyong Island shelling has proved to become the most dangerous in decades—without obvious new reasons or new contradictions to justify it. After President Lee Myung Bak’s coming to power in South Korea, Pyongyang developed suspicions over his new hard-line stance and demands for denuclearization. North Korea thought that Seoul’s call for reforms were merely a cover to undermine their regime and it took seriously the desire by Southern conservatives for “early reunification” and thus resorted to military provocations. Meanwhile, the U.S. Obama administration chose to abstain from any meaningful policy toward North Korea, while China played a more active role in supporting Pyongyang and Russian policy, which is based on the priority of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. All issues should be decided by political and diplomatic means without the use of force,threats, pressure, or isolation. Improvements in North-South relations, DPRK dialogue with the West, and a multilateral format are essential prerequisites for realizing a new security system in Korea that takes into account the interests of all parties. Only this can avert a new crisis. The author suggests a return to engagement and the promotion of slow evolutionary changes in North Korea by giving the current ruling elite tangible guarantees of security on the condition that the North would change its domestic and international behavior.
참고문헌 (74)
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