NUCLEAR CRISES IN KOREA: WHY THEY ARISE AND HOW TO RESOLVE THEM
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Analyzing the current situation around the North Korean nuclear problem, the author argues that both the DPRK and the US are both responsible for the development to a stage dangerous for the world peace. Comparing the present crisis with the similar one of 1993-1994, he underlines that both of them were caused by US attempts to block further detente in Korea because the process could undermine US’s forward deployment strategy and TMD scheme in the region. He presents Russia’s attitude toward a multilateral approach, proposed by the United States. He explains how developments in Iraq could make the North Korean leadership come to the conclusion that nuclear weapons is the best deterrent and identifies factors which will prevent the use of force for resolving the nuclear problem. On the basis of the analysis of these factors and positions of the US, China, the DPRK, the ROK, Japan and Russia the paper offers three possible developments of events on the Korean peninsula: a comprehensive settlement of the basic disagreements, a military conflict and a long negotiating process. The last one is considered the most probable one. The DPRK’s behavior testifies that its leaders have so far made stakes on dialogue with the purpose of easing external threats to the regime and getting economic assistance in order to maintain stability within the country in a time of cautious economic reforms. Under the circumstances, Russia expects the ROK to play a more active role in search for peaceful solution of the current situation through promotion of inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation.
Abstract
Analyzing the current situation around the North Korean nuclear problem, the author argues that both the DPRK and the US are both responsible for the development to a stage dangerous for the world peace. Comparing the present crisis with the similar one of 1993-1994, he underlines that both of them were caused by US attempts to block further detente in Korea because the process could undermine US’s forward deployment strategy and TMD scheme in the region. He presents Russia’s attitude toward a multilateral approach, proposed by the United States. He explains how developments in Iraq could make the North Korean leadership come to the conclusion that nuclear weapons is the best deterrent and identifies factors which will prevent the use of force for resolving the nuclear problem. On the basis of the analysis of these factors and positions of the US, China, the DPRK, the ROK, Japan and Russia the paper offers three possible developments of events on the Korean peninsula: a comprehensive settlement of the basic disagreements, a military conflict and a long negotiating process. The last one is considered the most probable one. The DPRK’s behavior testifies that its leaders have so far made stakes on dialogue with the purpose of easing external threats to the regime and getting economic assistance in order to maintain stability within the country in a time of cautious economic reforms. Under the circumstances, Russia expects the ROK to play a more active role in search for peaceful solution of the current situation through promotion of inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation.