Neither Peace, Nor War in Korea: A Russian Assessment of Past, Present and Future
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The lessons of history show that the situation in Korea remains a security threat for Russia. Although the nuclear/missile programs of North Korea (seen in Russia as a response by Pyongyang to the threats its the very regime’s existence) are causing concern in Russia, they cannot be solved separately without addressing the broader security regime issues in Korea. The multilateral diplomatic process, when and if it is resumed in the aftermath of the tragic “Cheonan” incident, should have on its agenda not only denuclearization, but also security guarantees for the DPRK, as well as a regional security regime as a mechanism to manage these guarantees. The US is to play a pivotal role in such a change of approaches as well as in engaging Pyongyang. The North Korean regime shows no signs of imminent collapse and should be dealt with as a long-term actor in Korea. As pressure and sanctions do not help obtain the goals of denuclearization, peace, stability and development, an engagement policy with the North to bring about transformation and modernization of the regime is the only answer. Much will depend on South Korea’s ability to recognize this reality and act accordingly,which could bring its partnership with Russia to a truly strategic level.
Abstract
The lessons of history show that the situation in Korea remains a security threat for Russia. Although the nuclear/missile programs of North Korea (seen in Russia as a response by Pyongyang to the threats its the very regime’s existence) are causing concern in Russia, they cannot be solved separately without addressing the broader security regime issues in Korea. The multilateral diplomatic process, when and if it is resumed in the aftermath of the tragic “Cheonan” incident, should have on its agenda not only denuclearization, but also security guarantees for the DPRK, as well as a regional security regime as a mechanism to manage these guarantees. The US is to play a pivotal role in such a change of approaches as well as in engaging Pyongyang. The North Korean regime shows no signs of imminent collapse and should be dealt with as a long-term actor in Korea. As pressure and sanctions do not help obtain the goals of denuclearization, peace, stability and development, an engagement policy with the North to bring about transformation and modernization of the regime is the only answer. Much will depend on South Korea’s ability to recognize this reality and act accordingly,which could bring its partnership with Russia to a truly strategic level.
참고문헌 (11)
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