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Russian Policy in Korea in a Time of Change

Georgy Toloraya
한국국방연구원 (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)|2009.03|The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis|제21권 제1호|pp. 67-84|DOI 10.22883/kjda.2009.21.1.005

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초록

The Korean peninsula’s importance for Russia has grown in recent years, while its Asian policy also became more active in line with the resurgence of Russia’s international profile. As its relations with both North and South Korea improved, Russia’s participation in the Six-Party Talks became the most significant development. Russia wants the nuclear problem of the Korean peninsula to be solved diplomatically, on a multilateral basis, taking into consideration the interests of all the parties. The future of the diplomatic process depends largely on overcoming mistrust and normalizing the relations of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) with the West. Pressure and power politics will not work, let alone implementing a military solution or attempts at a ‘‘soft landing.’’ The five parties and international bodies (including the UN) must guarantee North Korean security and help with development. For that, a ‘‘strategic decision’’ on coexistence with the DPRK should be taken in Washington, to be followed by South Korea and Japan. Only after that happens will there be a real possibility of North Korea eventually abandoning its ‘‘nuclear deterrent’’ and decreasing its excessive military potential. The U.S. role in this process remains crucial. A ‘‘grand bargain’’*North Korean security and development in exchange for denuclearization*should be pursued. The Obama administration can possibly do that and gain Russian support for the move. The Korean issue offers one of the best opportunities for the United States and Russia to cooperate in international affairs at a time of cooler relations.

Abstract

The Korean peninsula’s importance for Russia has grown in recent years, while its Asian policy also became more active in line with the resurgence of Russia’s international profile. As its relations with both North and South Korea improved, Russia’s participation in the Six-Party Talks became the most significant development. Russia wants the nuclear problem of the Korean peninsula to be solved diplomatically, on a multilateral basis, taking into consideration the interests of all the parties. The future of the diplomatic process depends largely on overcoming mistrust and normalizing the relations of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) with the West. Pressure and power politics will not work, let alone implementing a military solution or attempts at a ‘‘soft landing.’’ The five parties and international bodies (including the UN) must guarantee North Korean security and help with development. For that, a ‘‘strategic decision’’ on coexistence with the DPRK should be taken in Washington, to be followed by South Korea and Japan. Only after that happens will there be a real possibility of North Korea eventually abandoning its ‘‘nuclear deterrent’’ and decreasing its excessive military potential. The U.S. role in this process remains crucial. A ‘‘grand bargain’’*North Korean security and development in exchange for denuclearization*should be pursued. The Obama administration can possibly do that and gain Russian support for the move. The Korean issue offers one of the best opportunities for the United States and Russia to cooperate in international affairs at a time of cooler relations.

참고문헌 (62)

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