What Factors Determine China’s North Korea Policy?: Uncertainty, Instability and Status Quo Risk Management
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China’s North Korea policy is a combination of China’s strategic goal toward regional order including U.S.–China relations and tactical management over North Korea’s crisis action. Since the post–Cold War era, China has preferred the status quo as its regional strategy, which leads them to operate tactical management over North Korea risk. North Korea risk consists of uncertainty, which means uncontrollability of North Korea, and instability, which means the possibility of collapse of the North Korean regime. These risks often play as a crisis of China’s status quo strategy, so China is inclined to implement its North Korea Policy to control these crises. The basis of China’ North Korea policy is engagement, considering that China has to protect North Korea’s conventional and geopolitical values. However, the engagement comes in different forms according to the characteristics of the crisis. The one is coercive engagement, which appears when North Korea’s uncertainty prevails over instability. The other one is inclusive engagement, which occurs when North Korea’s instability is stronger than uncertainty. This hypothesis can be applied to past and current situations. With this point of view, it is possible to predict the future of China’s North Korea policy.
Abstract
China’s North Korea policy is a combination of China’s strategic goal toward regional order including U.S.–China relations and tactical management over North Korea’s crisis action. Since the post–Cold War era, China has preferred the status quo as its regional strategy, which leads them to operate tactical management over North Korea risk. North Korea risk consists of uncertainty, which means uncontrollability of North Korea, and instability, which means the possibility of collapse of the North Korean regime. These risks often play as a crisis of China’s status quo strategy, so China is inclined to implement its North Korea Policy to control these crises. The basis of China’ North Korea policy is engagement, considering that China has to protect North Korea’s conventional and geopolitical values. However, the engagement comes in different forms according to the characteristics of the crisis. The one is coercive engagement, which appears when North Korea’s uncertainty prevails over instability. The other one is inclusive engagement, which occurs when North Korea’s instability is stronger than uncertainty. This hypothesis can be applied to past and current situations. With this point of view, it is possible to predict the future of China’s North Korea policy.
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