A Spear and a Shield: Dilemmas of the American Strategy in East Asia
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The world is moving toward a new bipolarity between the United States and China. Under the bipolar structure, China is building Anti-Access and Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities against the United States, while the Americans are pursuing an AirSea Battle doctrine. However, the U.S. strategy is faced with a triple dilemma. First, the United States builds military power to penetrate China’s A2/AD, which requires offensive rather than defensive capabilities in character. Such military capabilities do not reflect America’s status-quo political objectives and distort the signals from Washington into more offensive ones. Second, with local allies located close to China, the United States pursues capabilities to come to rescue them in case of Chinese “emergencies.” The U.S. capabilities would aggravate the security dilemma between Beijing and Washington. Third, when the Americans disengage from East Asia in order to solve the dilemma with China, the U.S. allies—potential and formal alliance partners—in East Asia would go for independent nuclear programs rather than security cooperation among themselves. The historical legacy and mutual antagonism—in particular, South Korea’s anti-Japanese sentiment—would prevent a regional coalition against China from arising.
Abstract
The world is moving toward a new bipolarity between the United States and China. Under the bipolar structure, China is building Anti-Access and Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities against the United States, while the Americans are pursuing an AirSea Battle doctrine. However, the U.S. strategy is faced with a triple dilemma. First, the United States builds military power to penetrate China’s A2/AD, which requires offensive rather than defensive capabilities in character. Such military capabilities do not reflect America’s status-quo political objectives and distort the signals from Washington into more offensive ones. Second, with local allies located close to China, the United States pursues capabilities to come to rescue them in case of Chinese “emergencies.” The U.S. capabilities would aggravate the security dilemma between Beijing and Washington. Third, when the Americans disengage from East Asia in order to solve the dilemma with China, the U.S. allies—potential and formal alliance partners—in East Asia would go for independent nuclear programs rather than security cooperation among themselves. The historical legacy and mutual antagonism—in particular, South Korea’s anti-Japanese sentiment—would prevent a regional coalition against China from arising.
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