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Picking a Fight: Democracies, Liberal Constraints, and Selective Conflict Initiation

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Research shows that autocracies as well as democracies have reasons to avoid strong enemies. What, then, make democracies distinctive from autocracies in conflict selection? A critical difference may lie in the normative constraints democracies experience. Focusing on the roles of public sentiment and liberalism, we argue that democrats bearing high levels of accountability are less likely to choose armed conflict without justifiable causes. We assess the roles of three liberal factors in regard to the characteristics of target countries: respect of human rights, democratic representation, and economic interdependence. Material factors, such as relative military capability and geographic constraints are also considered. The results show that both autocracies and democracies tend to attack easier foes, but democracies avoid attacking countries that respect human rights and are economically interdependent. Additionally, unlike autocracies, democracies do not view other democracies as attractive targets of military attacks.

Abstract

Research shows that autocracies as well as democracies have reasons to avoid strong enemies. What, then, make democracies distinctive from autocracies in conflict selection? A critical difference may lie in the normative constraints democracies experience. Focusing on the roles of public sentiment and liberalism, we argue that democrats bearing high levels of accountability are less likely to choose armed conflict without justifiable causes. We assess the roles of three liberal factors in regard to the characteristics of target countries: respect of human rights, democratic representation, and economic interdependence. Material factors, such as relative military capability and geographic constraints are also considered. The results show that both autocracies and democracies tend to attack easier foes, but democracies avoid attacking countries that respect human rights and are economically interdependent. Additionally, unlike autocracies, democracies do not view other democracies as attractive targets of military attacks.

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