Public Opinion and the Conditional Nature of Constraining a President’s Military Decision-Making
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This paper explores that the impact of public opinion on the U.S. presidential military decision-making is conditioned on contextual factors such as political,electoral, and institutional contexts. To this end, the paper develops a research strategy motivated by the poliheuristic theory and the conditional nature of policy decision-making which constrain a central consideration of publics to the president’s decision of military action. When faced with international crises, presidents first eliminate alternatives that fail to satisfy the public’s preferences. Then, presidents choose alternatives that public support for military action is high. However, in fact,presidential responsiveness to public opinion is dependent upon the contextual factors. This paper uses the 1998 Fordham’s quarterly data of U.S. force 1940-94,combining some variables that measure the contextual factors to test the president’s responsiveness to public opinion. Since the dependent variable is an event count,Poisson regression is conducted. The findings show that public opinion during high presidential approval ratings, the period of elections, and the presidential first term is more likely to support the president’s decision of the use of force.
Abstract
This paper explores that the impact of public opinion on the U.S. presidential military decision-making is conditioned on contextual factors such as political,electoral, and institutional contexts. To this end, the paper develops a research strategy motivated by the poliheuristic theory and the conditional nature of policy decision-making which constrain a central consideration of publics to the president’s decision of military action. When faced with international crises, presidents first eliminate alternatives that fail to satisfy the public’s preferences. Then, presidents choose alternatives that public support for military action is high. However, in fact,presidential responsiveness to public opinion is dependent upon the contextual factors. This paper uses the 1998 Fordham’s quarterly data of U.S. force 1940-94,combining some variables that measure the contextual factors to test the president’s responsiveness to public opinion. Since the dependent variable is an event count,Poisson regression is conducted. The findings show that public opinion during high presidential approval ratings, the period of elections, and the presidential first term is more likely to support the president’s decision of the use of force.
참고문헌 (42)
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