본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

Power Asymmetry and the Role of Deterrence in the South China Sea

0

조회

0

다운로드

1

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

초록

China’s coercive activities in the South China Sea have resulted in a lively academic debate regarding strategies to deter Beijing and maintain the status quo. However, much of this literature has been dominated by the U.S.–China dynamic and has neglected the vital role of the littoral states in the region. This article, through the lens of a maritime strategic environment, deals with the potential for the littoral nations of the South China Sea to deter China. It argues that conventional deterrence by denial is a difficult but applicable strategy despite the substantial power asymmetry that exists between China and the littoral states in the region. However, such a deterrent approach must be tailored to the specific, non-existential challenges that China poses in the region. Among these challenges, this article examines deterrence within the context of China’s claim to the Spratly Islands and expansive claims to economic exploitation rights. A maritime strategic environment provides multiple avenues to impose cost on a superior power and the littoral states in the region have invested heavily in naval capabilities. However, as this article finds, it remains to be seen if the littoral states in the region have the technical capability or political will to successfully enact such a deterrent strategy.

Abstract

China’s coercive activities in the South China Sea have resulted in a lively academic debate regarding strategies to deter Beijing and maintain the status quo. However, much of this literature has been dominated by the U.S.–China dynamic and has neglected the vital role of the littoral states in the region. This article, through the lens of a maritime strategic environment, deals with the potential for the littoral nations of the South China Sea to deter China. It argues that conventional deterrence by denial is a difficult but applicable strategy despite the substantial power asymmetry that exists between China and the littoral states in the region. However, such a deterrent approach must be tailored to the specific, non-existential challenges that China poses in the region. Among these challenges, this article examines deterrence within the context of China’s claim to the Spratly Islands and expansive claims to economic exploitation rights. A maritime strategic environment provides multiple avenues to impose cost on a superior power and the littoral states in the region have invested heavily in naval capabilities. However, as this article finds, it remains to be seen if the littoral states in the region have the technical capability or political will to successfully enact such a deterrent strategy.

참고문헌 (109)

  1. Mira Rapp Hooper, "Uncharted Waters: Extended Deterrence and Maritime Disputes", The Washington Quarterly, 3(1), pp.127~146 (2015)
  2. "Course Correction: How to Stop China’s Maritime Advance" (2017)[URL]
  3. Michael Green, "Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia: The Theory and Practice of Gray Zone Deterrence" (2017), Rowman & Littlefield
  4. Bill Hayton, "The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia" (2014), Yale University Press
  5. Robert D. Kaplan, "Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific" (2014), Random House
  6. Robert S. Ross, "The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-First Century", International Security, 23(4), pp.102~113 (1999)
  7. John J. Mearsheimer, "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics", pp.114~128 (2001), W. W. Norton & Company
  8. Geoffrey Till, "Seapower: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century, 2nd ed", pp.191~197 (2009), Routledge
  9. Ken Booth, "Navies and Foreign Policy", pp.173~ (1977), Croom Helm
  10. Ronald O’Rourke, "China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities – Background and Issues for Congress", pp.40~41 (2017), Congressional Research Service
  11. Jack S. Levy, "Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy:The Contributions of Alexander George", Political Psychology, 29(4), pp.537~552 (2008)
  12. "The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China" (2015)[URL]
  13. David Shambaugh, "China’s Military Views the World", International Security, 24(3), pp.74~ (1999)
  14. Alan Dupont, "East Asia’s Maritime Disputes:Fishing in Troubled Waters", The Washington Quarterly, 37(1), pp.87~91 (2014)
  15. M. Taylor Fravel, "China’s Strategy in the South China Sea", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 33(3), pp.296~ (2011)
  16. Tim Huxley, "Standing Up to China", Survival, 57(6), pp.130~ (2015)
  17. Milan Vego, "Maritime Strategy and Sea Control: Theory and Practice", pp.34~ (2016), Routledge
  18. John, J. Mearsheimer, "Conventional Deterrence", pp.14~15 (1983), Cornell University Press
  19. Lawrence Freedman, "Deterrence", pp.27~28 (2004), Polity
  20. Glenn H. Snyder, "Deterrence and Defense: Toward a Theory of National Security", pp.9~ (1961), Princeton University Press
  21. Michael S. Gearson, "Deterrence in the Nuclear Age", Parameters, 39(3), pp.37~ (2009)
  22. Kindle, "Super Highway: Seapower in the 21st Century" (2014), Elliot and Thompson
  23. Bernard D. Cole, "Asian Maritime Strategies: Navigating Troubled Waters", pp.205~ (2013), Naval Institute Press
  24. U.S. Navy, "Naval Doctrine Publication 1: Naval Warfare", pp.27~ (2010), Department of the Navy
  25. John Stone, "Conventional Deterrence and the Challenge of Credibility", Contemporary Security Policy, 33(1), pp.109~ (2012)
  26. Barry Buzan, "The Arms Dynamic in World Politics", pp.158~ (1998), Lynne Rienner
  27. Gearson, "Deterrence in the Nuclear Age", pp.37~
  28. Snyder, "Deterrence and Defense", pp.15~
  29. Gearson, "Deterrence in the Nuclear Age", pp.37~
  30. Gearson, "Deterrence in the Nuclear Age", pp.37~
  31. Samuel P. Huntington, "Conventional Deterrence and Conventional Retaliation in Europe", International Security, 8(3), pp.36~ (1993)
  32. Thomas C. Schelling, "Arms and Influence, 2008", pp.78~79 (2008), Yale University
  33. James R. Holmes, "Strategic Features of the South China Sea: A Tough Neighborhood for Hegemons", Naval War College Review, 67(2), pp.31~ (2014)
  34. Till, "Seapower: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century", pp.275~
  35. Till, "Seapower: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century", pp.73~
  36. John B. Hattendorf, "Naval History and Maritime Strategy: Collected Essays", pp.260~ (2000), Krieger Publishing
  37. T.V. Paul, "Asymmetric Conflicts:War Initiation by Weaker Powers", pp.9~ (1994), Cambridge University Press
  38. Till, "Seapower: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century", pp.275~
  39. John Stone, "Conventional Deterrence and the Challenge of Credibility", pp.108~123
  40. Mearsheimer, "Conventional Deterrence", pp.58~59
  41. Edward Rhodes, "Conventional Deterrence", Comparative Strategy, 19(3), pp.245~246 (2000)
  42. Jack S. Levy, "When do Deterrent Threats Work", British Journal of Political Science, 18(4), pp.510~ (1988)
  43. John Arquilla, "The Origins of the South Atlantic War", Journal of Latin America Studies, 33(4), pp.751~752 (2001)
  44. "China’s Fishing Militia is a Military Force in All but Name" (2016)[URL]
  45. IISS, "Chapter 6: Asia", The Military Balance, 2017, pp.237~350 (2017)
  46. Geoffrey Till, "Small Navies: Strategies and Policies for Small Navies in War and Peace", pp.28~ (2014), Ashgate
  47. James Cable, "Gunboat Diplomacy 1919–2001", pp.118~ (1994), The Macmillan Press
  48. Richard A. Bitzinger, "A New Arms Race? Explaining Recent Southeast Asian Military Acquisitions", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 32(1), pp.61~ (2010)
  49. Parry, "Super Highway: Seapower in the 21st Century"
  50. "-235 Persuader Maritime Patrol Aircraft, Spain"[URL]
  51. "Philippine Restarts Maritime Patrol Aircraft Acquisition Programme" (2017)[URL]
  52. "Patrol for Pennies: Vietnam’s DHC-6 Twin-Otter 400s" (2016)[URL]
  53. Milan Vego, "Operational Warfare at Sea: Theory and Practice", pp.182~ (2017), Routledge
  54. Toshi Yoshihara, "Red Star over the Pacific: China’s Rise and the Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy", pp.102~103 (2010), Naval Institute Press
  55. Milan Vego, "Maritime Strategy and Sea Control: Theory and Practice", pp.61~ (2016), Routledge
  56. Mearsheimer, "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics", pp.144~
  57. Jacob Børresen, "Navies in Northern Water", pp.249~275 (2004), Frank Cass
  58. Robert J. Schneller Jr, "The Eagle in the Desert: Looking Back on U.S. Involvement in the Persian Gulf War", pp.237~ (1996), Praeger
  59. Colin S. Gray, "The Leverage of Sea Power: The Strategic Advantage of Navies in War", pp.17~ (1992), Free Press
  60. Milan Vego, "Naval Strategy and Operations in Narrow Seas", pp.295~296 (2003), Frank Cass
  61. Norman Friedman, "Southeast Asia and the Rise of Chinese and Indian Naval Power", pp.136~ (2010), Routledge
  62. "This Asian Power Just Bought Russia’s Lethal SU-35 (and It’s not China)" (2016)[URL]
  63. Chien Chung, "Taiwan’s Security and Air Power: Taiwan’s Defense Against the Air Threat from Mainland China", pp.155~ (2004), Routledge Curzon
  64. Vego, "Maritime Strategy and Sea Control", pp.65~
  65. Till, "Are Small Navies Different", pp.23~
  66. "Royal Malaysian Navy 15 to 5 Transformation Program by Admiral Kamarul" (2016)[URL]
  67. Stone, "Conventional Deterrence and the Challenge of Credibility", pp.226~
  68. Jan Joel Andersson, "Submarine Capabilities and Conventional Deterrence in Southeast Asia", Contemporary Security Policy, 36(3), pp.478~191 (2015)
  69. Till, "Seapower: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century", pp.273~
  70. Ian Speller, "Delayed Reaction: UK Maritime Expeditionary Capabilities and the Lessons of the Falklands Conflict", Defense and Security Analysis, 18(4), pp.367~ (2002)
  71. "China’s Nightmare: Vietnam’s New Killer Submarines" (2015)[URL]
  72. Booth, "Navies and Foreign Policy", pp.97~98
  73. Barry R. Posen, "Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony", International Security, 28(1), pp.8~ (2003)
  74. Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, "Alliance Strategy: U.S. – Small Allies Relationships", Journal of Strategic Studies, 3(2), pp.208~ (1980)
  75. Friedman, "Shaping Naval Power", pp.135~
  76. Booth, "Navies and Foreign Policy", pp.86~
  77. "Cable", pp.101~ (1994)
  78. "Successful Signaling at Scarborough Shoa" (2016)[URL]
  79. "Will America Go to War for the Philippines" (2016)[URL]
  80. "U.S., Vietnam Kick Off First Naval Engagement Activity in Trump Era" (2017)[URL]
  81. "Vietnam Uses and Old Naval Base to Make New Friends" (2017)[URL]
  82. Hoang Anh Tuan, "U.S.-Vietnam Security Cooperation: Catalysts and Constraints", Asian Politics and Policy, 8(1), pp.188~189 (2016)
  83. "Deterrence by Denial: How to Prevent China from Using Force" (2013)[URL]
  84. Hayton, "The South China Sea", pp.85~89
  85. "25 Years of Building Marine Platforms in the East Vietnam Sea" (2014)[URL]
  86. "Vietnam’s Island Building: Double-Standard or Drop in the Bucket"[URL]
  87. "U.S. Surveillance on Island in South China Sea Reveals Chinese Arms" (2015)[URL]
  88. "Vietnam Moves New Rocket Launchers into Disputed South China Sea" (2016)[URL]
  89. "Well Primed to Repel Attacks" (2007)[URL]
  90. Annie Hsiu-an Hsiao, "The South China Sea Dispute: Navigating Diplomatic and Strategic Tensions", pp.87~ (2016), ISEAS
  91. "Taiwan’s Development Work on Taiping Island" (2015)[URL]
  92. "Taiping Island Pier to be Completed by End of 2015" (2014)[URL]
  93. "Johnathan Chin, “Escalation Sees Itu Aba Allocated Howitzers" (2017)[URL]
  94. "No Plans to Deploy Missiles on Taiping: MND" (2016)[URL]
  95. Hayton, "The South China Sea", pp.106~
  96. "Philippines on Duterte’s Order to Occupy Disputed Islands: Never Mind" (2017)[URL]
  97. "How China’s Fishermen are Fighting a Covert War in the South China Sea" (2016)[URL]
  98. Alessio Patalano, "Seapower, Maritime Disputes, and the Evolving Security of the East and South China Sea", The RUSI Journal, 158(6), pp.52~ (2013)
  99. M. Taylor Fravel, "PLA Influence on China’s National Security Policymaking", pp.262~ (2015), Stanford University Press
  100. Christopher D. Yung, "PLA Influence on China’s National Security Policymaking", pp.274~299 (2015), Stanford University Press
  101. Christian Le Miere, "Maritime Diplomacy in the 21st Century: Drivers and Challenges", pp.41~ (2014), Routledge
  102. "Indonesia to Sink 71 Foreign Fishing Boats amid South China Sea Tensions" (2016)[URL]
  103. ROK MND, "2016 Defense White Paper", pp.239~ (2017), ROK MND
  104. "Indonesia Plans to Bolster Natuna Islands with UAVs, Additional Personnel" (2015)[URL]
  105. "Indonesian Navy Plans for Submarine Base in South China Sea" (2016)[URL]
  106. "Largest Multifunctional Replenishment Oiler Handed over to Vietnam Coast Guard" (2016)[URL]
  107. "Vietnam Coast Guard Receives New High-speed Patrol Boat" (2016)[URL]
  108. "DSA 2016: Destini Shipbuilding Reveals Design of New MMEA Patrol Craft" (2016)[URL]
  109. "South China Sea: Vietnam Halts Drilling after ‘China Threats" (2017)[URL]

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (7건)