위기이후 동아시아 다자경제제도의 건축 경쟁: 경제적 상호의존, 네트워크 효과, 안보이익
Competition Over Regional Architecture in the Post-Crisis East Asia: Economic Interdependence, Network Effect, Security Interest
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이 글은 동아시아 경제질서의 제도화를 향한 중국과 미국간 경쟁이 치열하게 전개되는 현실을 분석한다. 중국과 미국 간의 주도권 경쟁은 역내 두 경제대국인 일본과 한국을 자국중심으로 엮는 데 달려 있으며 이는 다음과 같은 세가지 변수에 의해 설명된다. ① 비대칭적 상호의존의 정도, ② 네트워크 외부효과의 정도, ③ 경제와 안보이익의 일치여부가 그것이다. 이 글은 이상의 세가지 변수를 검토한 후 향후 10년간 동아시아에서 미중의 지역제도구상 어느 한쪽이 지배적 구조를 형성할 가능성이 낮다고 판단한다. 시장의 추세는 분명 중국편이지만 미국의 아키텍쳐가 일정한 견제력을 가질 것으로 전망한다.
Abstract
This works analyzes how the United States and China have competed over the issue of institutionalizing an economic order in East Asia. The two countries' hegemonic competition will be critically shaped by their ability of inducing Japan and South Korea into its own sphere of influence. By employing three variables (the degree of asymmetry in economic interdependence, the degree of network externalities, the degree of commensurability between economic and geopolitical interests), the work concludes that there will be no hegemonic economic order established under an exclusive influence of either power. The United States will most likely counterbalance Chinese economic supremacy by designing and implementing complex networks of institutions in the region.
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